Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 13–16°C for Ankara's highest temperature on April 5, with 14°C leading at 29.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means near 13°C amid a tight spread in model outputs. This positioning stems from a persistent cool continental air mass over central Turkey, featuring partial cloud cover that caps daytime insolation and limits warming, as seen in recent Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance and today's overcast conditions pushing April 3 highs to just 14–16°C. Differentiating factors include potential southerly flow introducing mild advection versus northerly reinforcement of chillier air, plus ensemble variability in cloud forecasts and timing of peak heating. New MGM updates and 12-hourly model runs expected today and tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution based on official Ankara station observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Ankara on April 5?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 5?
14°C 30%
15°C 28%
13°C 17%
16°C 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 avr. 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
6%
13°C
17%
14°C
30%
15°C
23%
16°C
20%
17°C or higher
10%
14°C 30%
15°C 28%
13°C 17%
16°C 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 avr. 2026
7°C or below
$454 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$739 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$896 Vol.
1%
10°C
$214 Vol.
2%
11°C
$265 Vol.
2%
12°C
$390 Vol.
6%
13°C
$692 Vol.
17%
14°C
$298 Vol.
30%
15°C
$383 Vol.
23%
16°C
$347 Vol.
20%
17°C or higher
$557 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 13–16°C for Ankara's highest temperature on April 5, with 14°C leading at 29.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means near 13°C amid a tight spread in model outputs. This positioning stems from a persistent cool continental air mass over central Turkey, featuring partial cloud cover that caps daytime insolation and limits warming, as seen in recent Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance and today's overcast conditions pushing April 3 highs to just 14–16°C. Differentiating factors include potential southerly flow introducing mild advection versus northerly reinforcement of chillier air, plus ensemble variability in cloud forecasts and timing of peak heating. New MGM updates and 12-hourly model runs expected today and tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution based on official Ankara station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$5,224Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 13–16°C for Ankara's highest temperature on April 5, with 14°C leading at 29.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means near 13°C amid a tight spread in model outputs. This positioning stems from a persistent cool continental air mass over central Turkey, featuring partial cloud cover that caps daytime insolation and limits warming, as seen in recent Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance and today's overcast conditions pushing April 3 highs to just 14–16°C. Differentiating factors include potential southerly flow introducing mild advection versus northerly reinforcement of chillier air, plus ensemble variability in cloud forecasts and timing of peak heating. New MGM updates and 12-hourly model runs expected today and tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution based on official Ankara station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,224Date de fin
5 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 13–16°C for Ankara's highest temperature on April 5, with 14°C leading at 29.5% implied probability, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means near 13°C amid a tight spread in model outputs. This positioning stems from a persistent cool continental air mass over central Turkey, featuring partial cloud cover that caps daytime insolation and limits warming, as seen in recent Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance and today's overcast conditions pushing April 3 highs to just 14–16°C. Differentiating factors include potential southerly flow introducing mild advection versus northerly reinforcement of chillier air, plus ensemble variability in cloud forecasts and timing of peak heating. New MGM updates and 12-hourly model runs expected today and tomorrow could refine probabilities before resolution based on official Ankara station observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes