Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk exceeding 1400 tweets in March 2026 at 63.6% implied probability, reflecting his sustained high-volume posting pace averaging 40-50 per day in recent months like November 2024 (over 1,500) and December 2024 (around 1,400). This baseline stems from his X ownership, which incentivizes frequent engagement, amplified by ongoing political commentary and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) activities alongside Vivek Ramaswamy. Lower ranges trail due to no evident slowdown; traders anticipate continuity barring unforeseen personal or platform shifts, with next bins at 16.7% for 1360-1399. Historical variability exists, but current trends anchor elevated outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour1400+ 63.7%
1360-1399 16.1%
1320-1359 11.3%
1280-1319 6.2%
$3,159,708 Vol.
$3,159,708 Vol.
1040-1079
<1%
1080-1119
<1%
1120-1159
<1%
1160-1199
<1%
1200-1239
1%
1240-1279
2%
1280-1319
6%
1320-1359
11%
1360-1399
16%
1400+
64%
1400+ 63.7%
1360-1399 16.1%
1320-1359 11.3%
1280-1319 6.2%
$3,159,708 Vol.
$3,159,708 Vol.
1040-1079
<1%
1080-1119
<1%
1120-1159
<1%
1160-1199
<1%
1200-1239
1%
1240-1279
2%
1280-1319
6%
1320-1359
11%
1360-1399
16%
1400+
64%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Jan 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk exceeding 1400 tweets in March 2026 at 63.6% implied probability, reflecting his sustained high-volume posting pace averaging 40-50 per day in recent months like November 2024 (over 1,500) and December 2024 (around 1,400). This baseline stems from his X ownership, which incentivizes frequent engagement, amplified by ongoing political commentary and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) activities alongside Vivek Ramaswamy. Lower ranges trail due to no evident slowdown; traders anticipate continuity barring unforeseen personal or platform shifts, with next bins at 16.7% for 1360-1399. Historical variability exists, but current trends anchor elevated outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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