Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in a fragmented distribution, with the 0.6–1.0% bracket leading at 31% implied probability, reflecting recent acceleration tempered by structural headwinds. February 2026 CPI surged to 1.3% year-on-year—the highest since January 2023 and above 0.8% expectations—driven by Lunar New Year food price rebounds and core inflation hitting 1.8%, yet January's mere 0.2% print underscores volatility. Persistent property sector weakness and subdued consumer demand support lower brackets like -0.4–0.0% (13.1%), while People's Bank of China pledges of "appropriately loose" monetary policy, including potential reserve ratio cuts, could lift trajectories toward 2%+ amid rising oil pressures. Key swing factors include March CPI data due imminently and Q2 stimulus efficacy, with no outcome exceeding 31% amid growth-inflation trade-offs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourInflation annuelle en Chine 2026
Inflation annuelle en Chine 2026
0,6 – 1,0 % 38%
1,6 – 2,0 % 15.4%
0,1 – 0,5 % 14%
-0,4 – 0,0 % 13.1%
$31,078 Vol.
$31,078 Vol.
10 janv. 2027
<-1,0 %
2%
-0,9 – -0,5 %
8%
-0,4 – 0,0 %
13%
0,1 – 0,5 %
14%
0,6 – 1,0 %
30%
1,1 – 1,5 %
18%
1,6 – 2,0 %
15%
2,0–2,4 %
6%
2,5 %+
11%
0,6 – 1,0 % 38%
1,6 – 2,0 % 15.4%
0,1 – 0,5 % 14%
-0,4 – 0,0 % 13.1%
$31,078 Vol.
$31,078 Vol.
10 janv. 2027
<-1,0 %
$16,700 Vol.
2%
-0,9 – -0,5 %
$1,723 Vol.
8%
-0,4 – 0,0 %
$1,755 Vol.
13%
0,1 – 0,5 %
$1,564 Vol.
14%
0,6 – 1,0 %
$1,809 Vol.
30%
1,1 – 1,5 %
$2,111 Vol.
18%
1,6 – 2,0 %
$2,410 Vol.
15%
2,0–2,4 %
$1,527 Vol.
6%
2,5 %+
$1,480 Vol.
11%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in a fragmented distribution, with the 0.6–1.0% bracket leading at 31% implied probability, reflecting recent acceleration tempered by structural headwinds. February 2026 CPI surged to 1.3% year-on-year—the highest since January 2023 and above 0.8% expectations—driven by Lunar New Year food price rebounds and core inflation hitting 1.8%, yet January's mere 0.2% print underscores volatility. Persistent property sector weakness and subdued consumer demand support lower brackets like -0.4–0.0% (13.1%), while People's Bank of China pledges of "appropriately loose" monetary policy, including potential reserve ratio cuts, could lift trajectories toward 2%+ amid rising oil pressures. Key swing factors include March CPI data due imminently and Q2 stimulus efficacy, with no outcome exceeding 31% amid growth-inflation trade-offs.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volume
$31,078Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in a fragmented distribution, with the 0.6–1.0% bracket leading at 31% implied probability, reflecting recent acceleration tempered by structural headwinds. February 2026 CPI surged to 1.3% year-on-year—the highest since January 2023 and above 0.8% expectations—driven by Lunar New Year food price rebounds and core inflation hitting 1.8%, yet January's mere 0.2% print underscores volatility. Persistent property sector weakness and subdued consumer demand support lower brackets like -0.4–0.0% (13.1%), while People's Bank of China pledges of "appropriately loose" monetary policy, including potential reserve ratio cuts, could lift trajectories toward 2%+ amid rising oil pressures. Key swing factors include March CPI data due imminently and Q2 stimulus efficacy, with no outcome exceeding 31% amid growth-inflation trade-offs.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volume
$31,078Date de fin
10 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI inflation in a fragmented distribution, with the 0.6–1.0% bracket leading at 31% implied probability, reflecting recent acceleration tempered by structural headwinds. February 2026 CPI surged to 1.3% year-on-year—the highest since January 2023 and above 0.8% expectations—driven by Lunar New Year food price rebounds and core inflation hitting 1.8%, yet January's mere 0.2% print underscores volatility. Persistent property sector weakness and subdued consumer demand support lower brackets like -0.4–0.0% (13.1%), while People's Bank of China pledges of "appropriately loose" monetary policy, including potential reserve ratio cuts, could lift trajectories toward 2%+ amid rising oil pressures. Key swing factors include March CPI data due imminently and Q2 stimulus efficacy, with no outcome exceeding 31% amid growth-inflation trade-offs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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