Traders imply a 97.3% probability of the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29, driven by the March 18 decision to maintain rates as February CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year—nearing the 2% target—while unemployment rose modestly to 6.7% amid reversing early-year job gains. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-meeting guidance emphasized judgment amid labor softening and modest GDP growth, aligning with economist consensus for prolonged stability through 2026. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves slim room for hikes or cuts absent shocks. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March employment or CPI data, or escalating trade/geopolitical risks prompting policy pivot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque du Canada en avril ?
Décision de la Banque du Canada en avril ?
Aucun changement 97.3%
Augmentation 1.8%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$80,363 Vol.
$80,363 Vol.
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
1%
Aucun changement
97%
Augmentation
2%
Aucun changement 97.3%
Augmentation 1.8%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$80,363 Vol.
$80,363 Vol.
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
1%
Aucun changement
97%
Augmentation
2%
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders imply a 97.3% probability of the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29, driven by the March 18 decision to maintain rates as February CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year—nearing the 2% target—while unemployment rose modestly to 6.7% amid reversing early-year job gains. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-meeting guidance emphasized judgment amid labor softening and modest GDP growth, aligning with economist consensus for prolonged stability through 2026. This skin-in-the-game positioning leaves slim room for hikes or cuts absent shocks. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March employment or CPI data, or escalating trade/geopolitical risks prompting policy pivot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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