Elevated inflation risks from the Middle East conflict have become the dominant driver behind the 86% market-implied probability of at least one Bank of England rate hike in 2026. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.3% as surging energy prices passed through to households, with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report flagging material upside risks to second-round wage and price effects. The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its latest decision but signaled a state-contingent willingness to tighten if oil prices remain elevated, consistent with futures markets now embedding roughly 60 basis points of hikes by year-end. A loosening labor market and weaker growth provide some counterbalance, yet trader consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in these persistent inflationary pressures ahead of the June 18 Monetary Policy Committee meeting and fresh inflation releases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$28,262 Vol.
$28,262 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$28,262 Vol.
$28,262 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation risks from the Middle East conflict have become the dominant driver behind the 86% market-implied probability of at least one Bank of England rate hike in 2026. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.3% as surging energy prices passed through to households, with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report flagging material upside risks to second-round wage and price effects. The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its latest decision but signaled a state-contingent willingness to tighten if oil prices remain elevated, consistent with futures markets now embedding roughly 60 basis points of hikes by year-end. A loosening labor market and weaker growth provide some counterbalance, yet trader consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in these persistent inflationary pressures ahead of the June 18 Monetary Policy Committee meeting and fresh inflation releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Volume
$28,262Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation risks from the Middle East conflict have become the dominant driver behind the 86% market-implied probability of at least one Bank of England rate hike in 2026. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.3% as surging energy prices passed through to households, with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report flagging material upside risks to second-round wage and price effects. The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its latest decision but signaled a state-contingent willingness to tighten if oil prices remain elevated, consistent with futures markets now embedding roughly 60 basis points of hikes by year-end. A loosening labor market and weaker growth provide some counterbalance, yet trader consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in these persistent inflationary pressures ahead of the June 18 Monetary Policy Committee meeting and fresh inflation releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,262Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation risks from the Middle East conflict have become the dominant driver behind the 86% market-implied probability of at least one Bank of England rate hike in 2026. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.3% as surging energy prices passed through to households, with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report flagging material upside risks to second-round wage and price effects. The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its latest decision but signaled a state-contingent willingness to tighten if oil prices remain elevated, consistent with futures markets now embedding roughly 60 basis points of hikes by year-end. A loosening labor market and weaker growth provide some counterbalance, yet trader consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in these persistent inflationary pressures ahead of the June 18 Monetary Policy Committee meeting and fresh inflation releases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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