Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% implied probability of a Bank of England rate hike in 2026, driven by persistent CPI inflation at 3.0% in February—unchanged from January and well above the 2% target—coupled with escalating Middle East conflict risks, particularly the Iran war's surge in global energy prices. The Monetary Policy Committee unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, but signaled heightened vigilance over second-round effects in wage and price-setting amid sticky domestic pressures. Moderating wage growth offers some offset, yet traders anticipate a policy reversal if March CPI (due soon) confirms acceleration to 3–3.5%, with the next MPC meeting on April 30 as a key catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$12,515 Vol.
$12,515 Vol.
Oui
$12,515 Vol.
$12,515 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% implied probability of a Bank of England rate hike in 2026, driven by persistent CPI inflation at 3.0% in February—unchanged from January and well above the 2% target—coupled with escalating Middle East conflict risks, particularly the Iran war's surge in global energy prices. The Monetary Policy Committee unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, but signaled heightened vigilance over second-round effects in wage and price-setting amid sticky domestic pressures. Moderating wage growth offers some offset, yet traders anticipate a policy reversal if March CPI (due soon) confirms acceleration to 3–3.5%, with the next MPC meeting on April 30 as a key catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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