Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability of a Bank of England base rate hike sometime in 2026, driven by persistent 3.0% CPI inflation in February—unchanged from January—and escalating energy price risks from the Middle East conflict, including the Iran war, which dashed hopes for near-term cuts. The MPC unanimously held rates at 3.75% on March 19, citing upside inflation pressures despite cooling wage growth to a five-year low of 3.8% over three months to January and steady 5.2% unemployment. This pause reflects trader caution on the inflation trajectory, with SONIA forward curves signaling potential tightening if energy shocks persist; key catalysts include May MPC meeting, April CPI release, and Q1 GDP data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$12,611 Vol.
$12,611 Vol.
Oui
$12,611 Vol.
$12,611 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66% implied probability of a Bank of England base rate hike sometime in 2026, driven by persistent 3.0% CPI inflation in February—unchanged from January—and escalating energy price risks from the Middle East conflict, including the Iran war, which dashed hopes for near-term cuts. The MPC unanimously held rates at 3.75% on March 19, citing upside inflation pressures despite cooling wage growth to a five-year low of 3.8% over three months to January and steady 5.2% unemployment. This pause reflects trader caution on the inflation trajectory, with SONIA forward curves signaling potential tightening if energy shocks persist; key catalysts include May MPC meeting, April CPI release, and Q1 GDP data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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