Trader consensus gives 92.5% implied probability to Virginia voters approving the April 21 constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, driven by Democrats' overwhelming fundraising edge—tens of millions spent by pro-amendment super PACs versus minimal Republican outlays. Recent early voting data as of April 1 shows 57% Democratic to 38% Republican partisan shares among nearly 500,000 ballots, shifting from prior GOP-leaning trends and outpacing 2025 gubernatorial turnout. Polls reflect plurality support (51% yes in January Wason Center survey, 45% in March Heritage Action), bolstered by civil rights leaders' April 2 rebuke of opponent "misinformation." High GOP mobilization in rural districts remains a risk factor for late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$237,311 Vol.
$237,311 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
$237,311 Vol.
$237,311 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Trader consensus gives 92.5% implied probability to Virginia voters approving the April 21 constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, driven by Democrats' overwhelming fundraising edge—tens of millions spent by pro-amendment super PACs versus minimal Republican outlays. Recent early voting data as of April 1 shows 57% Democratic to 38% Republican partisan shares among nearly 500,000 ballots, shifting from prior GOP-leaning trends and outpacing 2025 gubernatorial turnout. Polls reflect plurality support (51% yes in January Wason Center survey, 45% in March Heritage Action), bolstered by civil rights leaders' April 2 rebuke of opponent "misinformation." High GOP mobilization in rural districts remains a risk factor for late shifts.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$237,311End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Trader consensus gives 92.5% implied probability to Virginia voters approving the April 21 constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, driven by Democrats' overwhelming fundraising edge—tens of millions spent by pro-amendment super PACs versus minimal Republican outlays. Recent early voting data as of April 1 shows 57% Democratic to 38% Republican partisan shares among nearly 500,000 ballots, shifting from prior GOP-leaning trends and outpacing 2025 gubernatorial turnout. Polls reflect plurality support (51% yes in January Wason Center survey, 45% in March Heritage Action), bolstered by civil rights leaders' April 2 rebuke of opponent "misinformation." High GOP mobilization in rural districts remains a risk factor for late shifts.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026 over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposed constitutional amendment is approved by a majority of valid votes cast in a statewide referendum by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the referendum vote is definitively cancelled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volume
$237,311End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus gives 92.5% implied probability to Virginia voters approving the April 21 constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of 2026 midterms, driven by Democrats' overwhelming fundraising edge—tens of millions spent by pro-amendment super PACs versus minimal Republican outlays. Recent early voting data as of April 1 shows 57% Democratic to 38% Republican partisan shares among nearly 500,000 ballots, shifting from prior GOP-leaning trends and outpacing 2025 gubernatorial turnout. Polls reflect plurality support (51% yes in January Wason Center survey, 45% in March Heritage Action), bolstered by civil rights leaders' April 2 rebuke of opponent "misinformation." High GOP mobilization in rural districts remains a risk factor for late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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