Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 12% implied probability to silver (SI) reaching $28 by March 31, driven primarily by the metal's current spot price of $24.15—over 16% below the threshold—following a pullback from an early-month peak near $25.20 amid a resurgent U.S. dollar and Treasury yields climbing above 4.3%. Strong industrial demand from solar panels and electronics provides a floor, with annual supply deficits nearing 200 million ounces, yet macroeconomic headwinds dominate as Federal Reserve rate cuts appear delayed post-March FOMC. Key catalyst ahead: March 28 PCE inflation data, where softer-than-expected prints could spark a precious metals rally, though historical precedents show silver struggling to surge 16% in under a week absent major catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$917,396 Vol.
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
1%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
4%
↓ $65
56%
↓ $60
18%
↓ $50
6%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
1%
$917,396 Vol.
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
1%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
4%
↓ $65
56%
↓ $60
18%
↓ $50
6%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
1%
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 12% implied probability to silver (SI) reaching $28 by March 31, driven primarily by the metal's current spot price of $24.15—over 16% below the threshold—following a pullback from an early-month peak near $25.20 amid a resurgent U.S. dollar and Treasury yields climbing above 4.3%. Strong industrial demand from solar panels and electronics provides a floor, with annual supply deficits nearing 200 million ounces, yet macroeconomic headwinds dominate as Federal Reserve rate cuts appear delayed post-March FOMC. Key catalyst ahead: March 28 PCE inflation data, where softer-than-expected prints could spark a precious metals rally, though historical precedents show silver struggling to surge 16% in under a week absent major catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions