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Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?

Market icon

Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$2,298,871 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$2,298,871 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia controls the intersection of Zaporizkyi prospekt (H-15) and Minska vulytsia in Kurakhove Ukraine by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if the intersection where the roads meet is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+intersection.png

Kurakhove Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+location.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5RiWB9CBKnjC6hzt5

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$2,298,871
End Date
Nov 30, 2024
Created At
Oct 3, 2024, 12:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia controls the intersection of Zaporizkyi prospekt (H-15) and Minska vulytsia in Kurakhove Ukraine by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if the intersection where the roads meet is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+intersection.png Kurakhove Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5RiWB9CBKnjC6hzt5 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia controls the intersection of Zaporizkyi prospekt (H-15) and Minska vulytsia in Kurakhove Ukraine by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if the intersection where the roads meet is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+intersection.png

Kurakhove Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+location.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5RiWB9CBKnjC6hzt5

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$2,298,871
End Date
Nov 30, 2024
Created At
Oct 3, 2024, 12:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia controls the intersection of Zaporizkyi prospekt (H-15) and Minska vulytsia in Kurakhove Ukraine by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if the intersection where the roads meet is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+intersection.png Kurakhove Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5RiWB9CBKnjC6hzt5 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?" has generated $2.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 3, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.