Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 at 81.3%, reflecting the absence of any confirmed summit plans despite President-elect Trump's December statements expressing interest in early talks on Ukraine following his January 20 inauguration. Logistical challenges, including cabinet confirmations, ongoing U.S. sanctions, and complex peace negotiations amid Russia's invasion, delay high-level diplomacy, prioritizing phone calls or proxies over in-person venues. Speculative low odds on sites like Gulf countries (2.5%) or Turkey (1.4%) stem from past neutral-host precedents, such as Istanbul talks, but lack official signals; Putin's openness to Moscow visits has not advanced concrete scheduling, underscoring market skepticism on near-term bilateral summits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo meeting by June 30 81.3%
Other EU country 4.9%
Gulf country 2.6%
Other 1.9%
$3,548,743 Vol.
$3,548,743 Vol.

No meeting by June 30
81%

Other EU country
5%

Gulf country
3%

Other
2%

China
2%

Russia
2%

United States
1%

Turkey
1%

Belarus
1%

Japan
1%

Switzerland
1%

South Korea
<1%

Finland
<1%

Ukraine
<1%

Australia
<1%
No meeting by June 30 81.3%
Other EU country 4.9%
Gulf country 2.6%
Other 1.9%
$3,548,743 Vol.
$3,548,743 Vol.

No meeting by June 30
81%

Other EU country
5%

Gulf country
3%

Other
2%

China
2%

Russia
2%

United States
1%

Turkey
1%

Belarus
1%

Japan
1%

Switzerland
1%

South Korea
<1%

Finland
<1%

Ukraine
<1%

Australia
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 30, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 at 81.3%, reflecting the absence of any confirmed summit plans despite President-elect Trump's December statements expressing interest in early talks on Ukraine following his January 20 inauguration. Logistical challenges, including cabinet confirmations, ongoing U.S. sanctions, and complex peace negotiations amid Russia's invasion, delay high-level diplomacy, prioritizing phone calls or proxies over in-person venues. Speculative low odds on sites like Gulf countries (2.5%) or Turkey (1.4%) stem from past neutral-host precedents, such as Istanbul talks, but lack official signals; Putin's openness to Moscow visits has not advanced concrete scheduling, underscoring market skepticism on near-term bilateral summits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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