Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a $90+ settlement for March WTI crude oil futures at 97.8%, reflecting front-month CL prices hovering around $103 per barrel amid acute supply disruptions from escalating Middle East hostilities. Since late February 2026, prices have surged over $20/bbl following Iranian tensions and partial Strait of Hormuz blockades, curtailing shipments and embedding a hefty geopolitical risk premium despite OPEC+'s modest April output hikes of 206,000 bpd. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases have provided limited offset, with Brent benchmarks exceeding $112. While strong positioning is anchored by persistent supply shocks, realistic challenges include sudden de-escalation, robust inventory builds from weekly EIA reports, or softening global demand amid recession fears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$90+ 97.8%
$85-$90 2.0%
$70-$75 1.8%
$75-$80 1.8%
$1,459,017 Vol.
$1,459,017 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<$60
<1%
$60-$65
<1%
$65-$70
1%
$70-$75
2%
$75-$80
2%
$80-$85
1%
$85-$90
2%
$90+
98%
$90+ 97.8%
$85-$90 2.0%
$70-$75 1.8%
$75-$80 1.8%
$1,459,017 Vol.
$1,459,017 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<$60
$108,420 Vol.
<1%
$60-$65
$117,655 Vol.
<1%
$65-$70
$223,174 Vol.
1%
$70-$75
$80,018 Vol.
2%
$75-$80
$278,202 Vol.
2%
$80-$85
$186,988 Vol.
1%
$85-$90
$227,944 Vol.
2%
$90+
$236,617 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a $90+ settlement for March WTI crude oil futures at 97.8%, reflecting front-month CL prices hovering around $103 per barrel amid acute supply disruptions from escalating Middle East hostilities. Since late February 2026, prices have surged over $20/bbl following Iranian tensions and partial Strait of Hormuz blockades, curtailing shipments and embedding a hefty geopolitical risk premium despite OPEC+'s modest April output hikes of 206,000 bpd. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases have provided limited offset, with Brent benchmarks exceeding $112. While strong positioning is anchored by persistent supply shocks, realistic challenges include sudden de-escalation, robust inventory builds from weekly EIA reports, or softening global demand amid recession fears.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$1,459,017End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a $90+ settlement for March WTI crude oil futures at 97.8%, reflecting front-month CL prices hovering around $103 per barrel amid acute supply disruptions from escalating Middle East hostilities. Since late February 2026, prices have surged over $20/bbl following Iranian tensions and partial Strait of Hormuz blockades, curtailing shipments and embedding a hefty geopolitical risk premium despite OPEC+'s modest April output hikes of 206,000 bpd. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases have provided limited offset, with Brent benchmarks exceeding $112. While strong positioning is anchored by persistent supply shocks, realistic challenges include sudden de-escalation, robust inventory builds from weekly EIA reports, or softening global demand amid recession fears.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$1,459,017End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a $90+ settlement for March WTI crude oil futures at 97.8%, reflecting front-month CL prices hovering around $103 per barrel amid acute supply disruptions from escalating Middle East hostilities. Since late February 2026, prices have surged over $20/bbl following Iranian tensions and partial Strait of Hormuz blockades, curtailing shipments and embedding a hefty geopolitical risk premium despite OPEC+'s modest April output hikes of 206,000 bpd. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases have provided limited offset, with Brent benchmarks exceeding $112. While strong positioning is anchored by persistent supply shocks, realistic challenges include sudden de-escalation, robust inventory builds from weekly EIA reports, or softening global demand amid recession fears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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