Trader consensus prices a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30 at just 6.5%, reflecting sustained political stability under President Zelenskyy's extended term amid martial law provisions that postpone elections until the Russian invasion ends. No credible reports of plots, military mutinies, or elite defections have emerged in the past 30 days, with security services like the SBU maintaining control after foiling prior schemes, including a 2024 plot tied to external actors. Recent developments center on Zelenskyy's diplomatic trips to Germany and Turkey for aid and talks, alongside frontline strikes and mobilization efforts, diverting focus from internal power challenges. Escalation in battlefield losses or aid shortfalls could shift odds, but current evidence points to continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30 at just 6.5%, reflecting sustained political stability under President Zelenskyy's extended term amid martial law provisions that postpone elections until the Russian invasion ends. No credible reports of plots, military mutinies, or elite defections have emerged in the past 30 days, with security services like the SBU maintaining control after foiling prior schemes, including a 2024 plot tied to external actors. Recent developments center on Zelenskyy's diplomatic trips to Germany and Turkey for aid and talks, alongside frontline strikes and mobilization efforts, diverting focus from internal power challenges. Escalation in battlefield losses or aid shortfalls could shift odds, but current evidence points to continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$8,962End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30 at just 6.5%, reflecting sustained political stability under President Zelenskyy's extended term amid martial law provisions that postpone elections until the Russian invasion ends. No credible reports of plots, military mutinies, or elite defections have emerged in the past 30 days, with security services like the SBU maintaining control after foiling prior schemes, including a 2024 plot tied to external actors. Recent developments center on Zelenskyy's diplomatic trips to Germany and Turkey for aid and talks, alongside frontline strikes and mobilization efforts, diverting focus from internal power challenges. Escalation in battlefield losses or aid shortfalls could shift odds, but current evidence points to continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,962End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30 at just 6.5%, reflecting sustained political stability under President Zelenskyy's extended term amid martial law provisions that postpone elections until the Russian invasion ends. No credible reports of plots, military mutinies, or elite defections have emerged in the past 30 days, with security services like the SBU maintaining control after foiling prior schemes, including a 2024 plot tied to external actors. Recent developments center on Zelenskyy's diplomatic trips to Germany and Turkey for aid and talks, alongside frontline strikes and mobilization efforts, diverting focus from internal power challenges. Escalation in battlefield losses or aid shortfalls could shift odds, but current evidence points to continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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