Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster opening above $200M at 34.5% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, driven by explosive presale ticket demand reported over the past 48 hours and the final trailer's March 9 debut showcasing Star Fox's Fox McCloud cameo, amplifying nostalgia from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $146M domestic launch. Strong family holiday positioning over Easter weekend (April 1 release) and Illumination's animation track record fuel upside bets, yet conservative tracking estimates from $135M–$160M+ (Deadline, Boxoffice Pro) across analysts reflect caution amid competition and untested Galaxy IP expansion, keeping the field wide-open with key walk-up sales deciding momentum through Thursday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
>200m 35%
190-200m 16.3%
180-190m 14.6%
170-180m 14.2%
$247,133 Vol.
$247,133 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
8%
160-170m
13%
170-180m
14%
180-190m
15%
190-200m
16%
>200m
35%
>200m 35%
190-200m 16.3%
180-190m 14.6%
170-180m 14.2%
$247,133 Vol.
$247,133 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
$18,318 Vol.
8%
160-170m
$18,839 Vol.
13%
170-180m
$17,299 Vol.
14%
180-190m
$17,203 Vol.
15%
190-200m
$16,934 Vol.
16%
>200m
$158,540 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster opening above $200M at 34.5% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, driven by explosive presale ticket demand reported over the past 48 hours and the final trailer's March 9 debut showcasing Star Fox's Fox McCloud cameo, amplifying nostalgia from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $146M domestic launch. Strong family holiday positioning over Easter weekend (April 1 release) and Illumination's animation track record fuel upside bets, yet conservative tracking estimates from $135M–$160M+ (Deadline, Boxoffice Pro) across analysts reflect caution amid competition and untested Galaxy IP expansion, keeping the field wide-open with key walk-up sales deciding momentum through Thursday.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$247,133End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster opening above $200M at 34.5% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, driven by explosive presale ticket demand reported over the past 48 hours and the final trailer's March 9 debut showcasing Star Fox's Fox McCloud cameo, amplifying nostalgia from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $146M domestic launch. Strong family holiday positioning over Easter weekend (April 1 release) and Illumination's animation track record fuel upside bets, yet conservative tracking estimates from $135M–$160M+ (Deadline, Boxoffice Pro) across analysts reflect caution amid competition and untested Galaxy IP expansion, keeping the field wide-open with key walk-up sales deciding momentum through Thursday.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$247,133End Date
Apr 6, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster opening above $200M at 34.5% implied probability for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, driven by explosive presale ticket demand reported over the past 48 hours and the final trailer's March 9 debut showcasing Star Fox's Fox McCloud cameo, amplifying nostalgia from the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $146M domestic launch. Strong family holiday positioning over Easter weekend (April 1 release) and Illumination's animation track record fuel upside bets, yet conservative tracking estimates from $135M–$160M+ (Deadline, Boxoffice Pro) across analysts reflect caution amid competition and untested Galaxy IP expansion, keeping the field wide-open with key walk-up sales deciding momentum through Thursday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions