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Politics·Pakistan

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?

Market icon
Politics·Pakistan

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?

$134,602 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$134,602 Vol.

Polymarket

April 30

$4,898 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Pakistan and Afghanistan's Taliban government are holding China-mediated talks in Urumqi as of early April 2026 to broker a durable ceasefire, marking the most significant diplomatic push since open conflict erupted in late February with Pakistani airstrikes targeting TTP militant sanctuaries across the border. Temporary pauses, including a five-day Eid al-Fitr truce in mid-March, collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations, renewed airstrikes, and heavy shelling in Kunar and Bajaur reported through late March. These negotiations address core tensions over cross-border militancy and territorial incursions, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over enforcement amid historical mistrust. Outcomes could hinge on verifiable de-escalation commitments, with UN experts urging lasting peace ahead of potential further escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$134,602
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Pakistan and Afghanistan's Taliban government are holding China-mediated talks in Urumqi as of early April 2026 to broker a durable ceasefire, marking the most significant diplomatic push since open conflict erupted in late February with Pakistani airstrikes targeting TTP militant sanctuaries across the border. Temporary pauses, including a five-day Eid al-Fitr truce in mid-March, collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations, renewed airstrikes, and heavy shelling in Kunar and Bajaur reported through late March. These negotiations address core tensions over cross-border militancy and territorial incursions, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over enforcement amid historical mistrust. Outcomes could hinge on verifiable de-escalation commitments, with UN experts urging lasting peace ahead of potential further escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$134,602
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 30" at 28%, followed by "March 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?" has generated $134.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?" is "April 30" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.