Market icon

November 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.20–1.24ºC 100.0%

<1.10ºC <1%

1.10–1.14ºC <1%

1.15–1.19ºC <1%

Polymarket

$977,586 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for November 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$977,586
End Date
Dec 11, 2025
Created At
Nov 18, 2025, 4:28 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Market icon

November 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.20–1.24ºC 100.0%

<1.10ºC <1%

1.10–1.14ºC <1%

1.15–1.19ºC <1%

Polymarket

$977,586 Vol.

<1.10ºC

$296,508 Vol.

No

1.10–1.14ºC

$303,318 Vol.

No

1.15–1.19ºC

$92,549 Vol.

No

1.20–1.24ºC

$91,582 Vol.

Yes

1.25–1.29ºC

$91,495 Vol.

No

>1.29ºC

$102,133 Vol.

No

About

Volume
$977,586
End Date
Dec 11, 2025
Created At
Nov 18, 2025, 4:28 PM ET

Beware of external links.