Unity's withdrawal from the October 27, 2026 Knesset election in early September, following unsuccessful alliance talks and polling well below the 3.25% threshold, has locked in trader expectations for a sub-0.5% national vote share. Founded weeks earlier by former Likud figures Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein as a right-wing alternative, the party cited weak public support and an unwillingness to back a unity government before exiting. Candidate lists closed on September 8 without Unity, eliminating any realistic path to ballot access or measurable support. The 94.8% consensus on the lowest outcome bracket reflects this structural absence, with only improbable late reversals—such as a court intervention or unfiled merger—potentially altering the result before voting.