Unity, a right-wing party founded in August 2026 by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein after splitting from Likud, withdrew from the October 27 Knesset election in early September. It cited consistently low polling below the 3.25% threshold, failed alliance talks including with Blue and White, and limited public appetite for new entrants. The party does not appear on finalized candidate lists or in any recent polling averages tracking the 38 competing slates. With voting nine days away and surplus agreements already concluded, traders assign overwhelming probability to a vote share under 0.5%. Late reversal or write-in support would require unprecedented procedural changes in Israel's closed-list proportional system and lacks any supporting developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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