Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, triggering the Islamic Republic's first leadership transition since 1989. The Assembly of Experts appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 under constitutional procedures, establishing an interim council in the interim. Ongoing military conflict, domestic unrest, and questions over the new leader's public role and health have sustained uncertainty about institutional stability. Traders assess whether further shifts, such as additional removals or challenges to the succession, will occur before any specified deadline, with the Assembly's selection process and external pressures serving as primary variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$17,028,799 Vol.
May 31, 2026
June 30
5%
December 31
27%
$17,028,799 Vol.
June 30
$2,676,891 Vol.
5%
December 31
$2,746,214 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, triggering the Islamic Republic's first leadership transition since 1989. The Assembly of Experts appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 under constitutional procedures, establishing an interim council in the interim. Ongoing military conflict, domestic unrest, and questions over the new leader's public role and health have sustained uncertainty about institutional stability. Traders assess whether further shifts, such as additional removals or challenges to the succession, will occur before any specified deadline, with the Assembly's selection process and external pressures serving as primary variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Volume
$17,028,799End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, triggering the Islamic Republic's first leadership transition since 1989. The Assembly of Experts appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 under constitutional procedures, establishing an interim council in the interim. Ongoing military conflict, domestic unrest, and questions over the new leader's public role and health have sustained uncertainty about institutional stability. Traders assess whether further shifts, such as additional removals or challenges to the succession, will occur before any specified deadline, with the Assembly's selection process and external pressures serving as primary variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,028,799End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, triggering the Islamic Republic's first leadership transition since 1989. The Assembly of Experts appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 8 under constitutional procedures, establishing an interim council in the interim. Ongoing military conflict, domestic unrest, and questions over the new leader's public role and health have sustained uncertainty about institutional stability. Traders assess whether further shifts, such as additional removals or challenges to the succession, will occur before any specified deadline, with the Assembly's selection process and external pressures serving as primary variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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