Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 53.8%, with 15-19 close behind at 42.5%, driven by the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis where Iran imposed selective passage controls amid US-Israel military actions. Maritime intelligence from Windward reported just 16 AIS-visible crossings over March 16-22, averaging under 3 daily, while UANI noted a single open transit on March 22. A brief uptick around March 17-18, with vessels nearly doubling per tracking data, contributed to the narrow lead for higher bins, though dark fleet activity and IRGC oversight obscure precise counts awaiting IMF Portwatch confirmation for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
20-24 53.8%
15-19 41.7%
25-29 2.5%
10-14 <1%
$422,451 Vol.
$422,451 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<10
<1%
10-14
1%
15-19
42%
20-24
54%
25-29
3%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45+
<1%
20-24 53.8%
15-19 41.7%
25-29 2.5%
10-14 <1%
$422,451 Vol.
$422,451 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<10
$53,808 Vol.
<1%
10-14
$38,083 Vol.
1%
15-19
$55,585 Vol.
42%
20-24
$39,982 Vol.
54%
25-29
$26,196 Vol.
3%
30-34
$23,872 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$34,807 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$49,897 Vol.
<1%
45+
$100,220 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 53.8%, with 15-19 close behind at 42.5%, driven by the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis where Iran imposed selective passage controls amid US-Israel military actions. Maritime intelligence from Windward reported just 16 AIS-visible crossings over March 16-22, averaging under 3 daily, while UANI noted a single open transit on March 22. A brief uptick around March 17-18, with vessels nearly doubling per tracking data, contributed to the narrow lead for higher bins, though dark fleet activity and IRGC oversight obscure precise counts awaiting IMF Portwatch confirmation for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$422,451End Date
Mar 23, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 53.8%, with 15-19 close behind at 42.5%, driven by the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis where Iran imposed selective passage controls amid US-Israel military actions. Maritime intelligence from Windward reported just 16 AIS-visible crossings over March 16-22, averaging under 3 daily, while UANI noted a single open transit on March 22. A brief uptick around March 17-18, with vessels nearly doubling per tracking data, contributed to the narrow lead for higher bins, though dark fleet activity and IRGC oversight obscure precise counts awaiting IMF Portwatch confirmation for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$422,451End Date
Mar 23, 2026Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 53.8%, with 15-19 close behind at 42.5%, driven by the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis where Iran imposed selective passage controls amid US-Israel military actions. Maritime intelligence from Windward reported just 16 AIS-visible crossings over March 16-22, averaging under 3 daily, while UANI noted a single open transit on March 22. A brief uptick around March 17-18, with vessels nearly doubling per tracking data, contributed to the narrow lead for higher bins, though dark fleet activity and IRGC oversight obscure precise counts awaiting IMF Portwatch confirmation for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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