Name: How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?
Start: 2024-12-29T22:50:43.348587Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market group over how many Fed rate cuts will happen in 2025.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.

If there is a rate cut at any time within 2025, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 7 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 7 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 8 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

7 (175 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 1 cut of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 1 rate cut by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 2 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

1 (25 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 2 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 2 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 3 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

2 (50 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 6 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 6 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 7 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

6 (150 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 3 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 3 rate cuts by then.

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 4 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

3 (75 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 4 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 5 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

4 (100 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 5 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 5 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 6 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

5 (125 bps)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are 8 or more cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

8 or more (200+ bps)

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

President Trump publicly pressures Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates immediately, citing the perfect timing amidst falling Treasury yields and market turmoil from new tariff announcements. Powell, however, resists the political pressure, stating there is no rush to adjust rates and emphasizing the Fed's independence while acknowledging potential inflationary impacts from tariffs.

Trump Demands Rate Cuts

BREAKING: Fed Chair Powell says "it feels like we don't need to be in a hurry" regarding interest rate cuts.

Someone in the audience asks, "Really?"

Powell responds: "Yeah!"

"CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME" https://t.co/ndkHncc4Ng https://t.co/ALZfH33bcj

*POWELL: PEOPLE STILL EXPERIENCING HIGH PRICES, NOT HAPPY

Were people not experiencing high prices three months before the elections when you cut rates by 50bps?

Let me see if I've got this. Here is Trump's brilliant plan. 1) Announce reckless tariffs to deliberately crash the stock market and send the economy into a recession. 2) This will result in lower oil prices and bond yields, allowing the Fed to cut rates. What could go wrong?

Truly incredible:

1. President Trump 10 minutes ago: Fed Chair Powell is always "late" to cut rates, "cut interest rates, Jerome, and stop playing politics!"

2. Fed Chair Powell now: It is "too soon" to determine the appropriate policy path.

Fed Chair Powell and President

BREAKING: President Trump says it would be a "PERFECT time for Powell to cut interest rates."

He said Powell is always "late" but "could now change his image."

Trump is calling for immediate rate cuts as financial markets tank on tariff news. https://t.co/N1xS5mOvoJ

President Trump calls on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates as the 10 Year Treasury has fallen below 4%. https://t.co/w4wlFjc6Fh

🚨 LATEST: Fed Chair Jerome Powell says there’s no rush to adjust interest rates, stressing the need to assess the impact of new tariffs. https://t.co/XqGSuI7lgN

🇺🇸 POWELL: FED MUST STAY INDEPENDENT — EVEN AS TARIFF FALLOUT GROWS

Fed Chair Jerome Powell says the central bank won’t respond to political pressure — even as Trump calls this the “perfect time” to cut rates.

Powell:

“The Fed’s job is not to follow politics — it’s to follow https://t.co/uyMbVqgwBl https://t.co/JX9e10swPb

BREAKING: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, moments ago:

“Higher tariffs will be working their way through our economy and are likely to raise inflation in incoming quarters.”

TRUMP DID THAT! https://t.co/3o2redWV9b

Economic reports showing weaker-than-expected job growth, with ADP reporting only 37K job additions against an estimate of 115K, have fueled speculation of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, though Polymarket indicates a low likelihood for 2025. Meanwhile, Europe is almost certain to cut rates this month, contrasting with the Fed's current stance, while President Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Powell for immediate rate reductions.

Fed Rate Cut Speculation

While the US Fed is ignoring demands for rate cuts, Europe is doing the opposite.

99% chance they cut rates this month.

Interest rates are tumbling Wednesday after a trio of soft economic reports. For now, bitcoin is unimpressed with the idea that Fed rate cuts could come sooner rather than later. Friday's jobs data for May could prove key.

https://t.co/SrTk08cclO

ADP JOBS MISS EXPECTATIONS WITH JUST 37K ADDS VS 115K ESTIMATE

President Trump renews pressure on Powell to cut rates -- but Polymarket still prices no 2025 cuts as the base case.

We need to cut rates now. https://t.co/ICSxS6JEYt

Recent economic data, including a moderate rise in December PPI inflation to 3.3% below expectations, has sparked uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rate cuts in 2025, with some analysts predicting no cuts before mid-year due to a resilient labor market and rising bond yields. Additionally, concerns over inflation rebounding and strong economic indicators like employment data suggest the Fed may adopt a more hawkish stance, impacting market expectations and liquidity.

Fed Rate Cuts Uncertain

It's fascinating how inflation expectations have almost perfectly bottomed exactly when the Fed started to cut rates. 

10-year breakeven rates are now at its highest level since October 2023. 

Here is a reminder that when debt limits a monetary authorities actions, inflation https://t.co/ynmFTjeAsi

From Goldman: "How unusual is it for US interest rates to rise in the early innings of a Fed cutting cycle?  Consider the following two charts, which cover 11 cutting cycles over the past 40 years. As you can see very clearly, at this number of days following the first cut, the https://t.co/SLAvdTif7W

There will be ZERO interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year warns Bank of America 🚨 https://t.co/C0IIaqeH8p

Something doesn't add up here:

Today, PPI inflation data came in BELOW expectations but the 10-year note yield hit a new 14-month high of 4.82%.

Many are confused, doesn't lower than expected inflation mean lower rates?

Bond markets are concerned. Let us explain.

(a thread)

Inflation rearing its ugly head again and causing the Fed to cut interest rates fewer times this year is the biggest concern for many market participants. Today's PPI data shows inflation isn't coming back right now. This is BULLISH

CPI tomorrow🧐

tick tock, tick tock⏳⏲️

PPI came in lower than expected, easing pressure on interest rates and stocks. For today, the narrative that has been driving stocks lower and rates higher has shifted. Tomorrow, we’ll get the CPI report, and that will set the tone for the next story.

As I mentioned yesterday, I

Friday’s employment data confirms that the economy remains strong and the labor market remains tight. Per the first chart below, this allows less room (if any) for the Fed to cut rates, and the forward curve now expects only one more cut for the cycle. I would not be surprised if https://t.co/MHiVxEtpq9

Today we get PPI and PCE data which the Fed uses for rate cuts/hikes/inflation read. Then tomorrow we get CPI. Last month both were a little hot and pushed the markets down. IF we get even a 1/10th hotter read on any numbers today/tomorrow, I'd expect this rally to reverse. $TSLA

Why is Dollar rising?

📌Because 10yr Bond Yield in US rose from 3.8% to 4.8% 

Higher Bond Yield=Stronger Dollar

📌US Fed cut Rates by 100bps in 2024..in 2025,cut may only be 50bps

Hawkish Fed=Stronger Dollar

So Dollar is rising,INR not falling

INR in fact,Outperformed peers https://t.co/8hslYPEdVn

Interest rates may need to be kept higher for longer as US President-elect Donald J. Trump’s policies could delay the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and forcing other central banks to do the same, analysts said. https://t.co/dBK5WxOg6c

📉 UBS: Fed May Still Cut Rates Twice in 2025

Despite strong December non-farm payrolls data, UBS strategists, led by Mark Haefele, believe the Fed could cut rates by 50bps this year.

📊 Key Insights:
- Markets expect no rate cuts before June, with fewer than two 25bps cuts for https://t.co/KaoVTTU5zQ

The markets are behaving as if good jobs news is bad news for interest rates and perhaps inflation. They’re not crazy. The Fed’s premature rate cuts look worse all the time. 
https://t.co/TEtULJ8cD2

🚨 Speculation Alert: No More Rate Cuts? What’s Next for Liquidity &amp; Markets? 🚨

Recent economic data hints that the Federal Reserve could stop cutting interest rates sooner than expected. If this happens, how could liquidity return to markets? From slowing quantitative https://t.co/XvwZ8MPmzB

Where stimulus comes from if the Fed doesn’t cut rates?
How about this.
Treasury General Account
12/18/2024 = $804 billion
1/8/2025 =  $620.5 billion
The Treasury has reduced the size of its cash hoard at the Fed by $180.
The TGA is not in M2 until it is spent…now it has been.

U.S. producer prices increased moderately in December, but that is unlikely to change views that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates again before the second half of this year amid labor market resilience. https://t.co/r5IzNCRCAk

BREAKING: December PPI inflation rises to 3.3%, below expectations of 3.5%.

Core PPI inflation rises to 3.5%, below expectations of 3.8%.

A smaller increase than expected, but PPI inflation is now at its highest since February 2023.

Further evidence of a rebound in inflation.

The stock market is letting the bond market do the dirty work to force the Fed to intervene.
Intervention is coming some time in 2025.
The only questions are the when, how &amp; what name they will give it this time.

January PPI inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.5%, surpassing forecasts of 3.2%, while core PPI hit 3.6% and CPI reached a 7-month high, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve's policy pivot appears ineffective as rates for Americans have increased by 100 basis points since rate cuts began, raising concerns about stagflation and the Fed's ability to control inflation.

Inflation Surges Unexpectedly

Is this the worst "Fed pivot" in history?

Since the Fed "pivoted," CPI has RISEN to a 7-month high and PPI just hit its highest since Feb 2023.

In fact, rates paid by Americans are UP +100 bps since cuts began.

How HOT is inflation right now? Let us explain.

(a thread) https://t.co/1dFaauoPJe

BREAKING: January PPI inflation unexpectedly RISES to 3.5%, above expectations of 3.2%.

Core PPI inflation was 3.6%, ABOVE expectations of 3.3%.

PPI inflation is now at its highest since February 2023 while CPI jumped +0.5% month-over-month.

The "Fed pivot" is over. https://t.co/cRk1DhKbFH

The Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet, however, and we have reached the point at which the Fed’s reverse repo program (RRP) has been all but depleted. That means that any further reductions in assets will likely start shrinking bank reserves (which would constitute a https://t.co/ljrh0cGAtl

#ETH 2023-2025 overlayed with 2019-2021

(Not looking at price targets, just merely the structure of the price action)

Fed policy change took place around this time in 2020-Currently FED has not signaled any change such as as end to QT so currently different from that standpoint https://t.co/n3vHyz5Khh

Firms surveyed by the Cleveland Fed expect CPI inflation of 3.2% over the coming year, the lowest since Q2 2021 and equal to what firms expected at the end of 2018 https://t.co/lhpLkx0s0P

This is just an incredible segment on inflation on CNBC. 

Stagflation ahead?  

Multiple takes below on why inflation is here to stay and the Fed hasn’t been restrictive enough to contain it.  

Couldn’t agree more. Must watch 👇👇 https://t.co/jYU3UpRbC7

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Amazon (AMZN) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for FedEx (FDX) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for FDX prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for FedEx (FDX) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for FDX prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If FDX does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for FDX.

FedEx (FDX) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- A hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A megaquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Natural+Disaster+Edition.pdf 

Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Zcash (ZEC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:35 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ZEC/USDT “Low” prices available at:
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ZEC_USDT
with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Zcash dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Uniswap (UNI/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the UNI/USDT “High” prices available at:
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/UNI_USDT
with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar.

Only the Binance UNI/USDT price feed will be used.
Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.

Will UNI reach $6.50 by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla (TSLA) achieves a daily high price greater than 488.5399 USD during market hours by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the respective company’s intraday high quotes during the specified timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Nasdaq website for the relevant ticker (https://www.nasdaq.com/), specifically the 'Today's High/Low' figure on the main page, as well as the 'High' column on the Historical Quotes page.

Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 13, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 25, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Base Airdrop occurs
- Metamask Airdrop occurs
- OpenSea Airdrop occurs
- Pump.fun Airdrop occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/airdrop.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elizabeth Holmes officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Elizabeth Holmes either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Korn Ferry (KFY) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for KFY prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Korn Ferry (KFY) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for KFY prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If KFY does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for KFY.

Korn Ferry (KFY) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Oracle (ORCL) after the next earnings release is higher than the official NYSE closing price for ORCL prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Oracle (ORCL) after the next earnings release is lower than the official NYSE closing price for ORCL prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing of the company’s first public release of earnings figures, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If ORCL does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days is shortened (for example, due to a market holiday), the official closing price published by the NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for ORCL.

Oracle (ORCL) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Reya's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Reya (https://x.com/reya_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

2 (50 bps)
$3,372,944 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

3 (75 bps)
$3,221,889 Vol.
93%

4 (100 bps)
$2,975,733 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

5 (125 bps)
$2,252,215 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

6 (150 bps)
$2,615,832 Vol.
<1%

7 (175 bps)
$3,327,595 Vol.
<1%

8 or more (200+ bps)
$2,425,747 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

Rules

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

About

Related

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

2 (50 bps)$3,372,944 Vol.6%0123456789%buy Yes6¢buy No95¢

3 (75 bps)$3,221,889 Vol.93%buy Yes94¢buy No8¢

4 (100 bps)$2,975,733 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.7¢

5 (125 bps)$2,252,215 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.2¢buy No0.0¢

6 (150 bps)$2,615,832 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.1¢buy No0.0¢

7 (175 bps)$3,327,595 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.1¢buy No0.0¢

8 or more (200+ bps)$2,425,747 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.1¢buy No0.0¢

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

Rules

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

Market Context

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

About

Related

2 (50 bps)
$3,372,944 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

3 (75 bps)
$3,221,889 Vol.
93%

4 (100 bps)
$2,975,733 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

5 (125 bps)
$2,252,215 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

6 (150 bps)
$2,615,832 Vol.
<1%

7 (175 bps)
$3,327,595 Vol.
<1%

8 or more (200+ bps)
$2,425,747 Vol.
<1%