Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 4?

NEW

0 46%

1 36%

2 12%

>5 5.3%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 28, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, and January 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,832
End Date
Jan 4, 2026
Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 10:05 PM UTC
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Beware of external links.

NEW
Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 4?

0 46%

1 36%

2 12%

>5 5.3%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

0

$457 Vol.

46%

1

$23 Vol.

36%

2

$230 Vol.

12%

3

$175 Vol.

4%

4

$284 Vol.

4%

5

$574 Vol.

4%

>5

$127 Vol.

5%

About

Volume
$1,832
End Date
Jan 4, 2026
Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 10:05 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.