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Economy·Business

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Market icon
Economy·Business

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$138,438 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$138,438 Vol.

Polymarket

3.9%

$25,127 Vol.

63%

3.8%

$26,189 Vol.

45%

3.7%

$20,670 Vol.

41%

3.6%

$4,645 Vol.

41%

3.5%

$29,841 Vol.

18%

3.0%

$0 Vol.

14%

2.0%

$207 Vol.

10%

1.0%

$0 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has retreated to around 4.18% following the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September—its first in four years—and dovish signals for two more quarter-point reductions by year-end. Cooling inflation, evidenced by September CPI rising just 2.4% year-over-year against the Fed's 2% target, combined with labor market softening (unemployment at 4.1%), drives trader consensus for yields testing lower levels before 2027. Market-implied Fed funds futures project rates nearing 3.25% by mid-2025, tempering aggressive decline bets amid resilient U.S. growth. Watch October nonfarm payrolls on November 1 and the FOMC meeting on November 6-7 for catalysts that could steepen the disinflation trajectory or revive inflation fears.

The 10-year Treasury yield has retreated to around 4.18% following the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September—its first in four years—and dovish signals for two more quarter-point reductions by year-end. Cooling inflation, evidenced by September CPI rising just 2.4% year-over-year against the Fed's 2% target, combined with labor market softening (unemployment at 4.1%), drives trader consensus for yields testing lower levels before 2027. Market-implied Fed funds futures project rates nearing 3.25% by mid-2025, tempering aggressive decline bets amid resilient U.S. growth. Watch October nonfarm payrolls on November 1 and the FOMC meeting on November 6-7 for catalysts that could steepen the disinflation trajectory or revive inflation fears.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has retreated to around 4.18% following the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September—its first in four years—and dovish signals for two more quarter-point reductions by year-end. Cooling inflation, evidenced by September CPI rising just 2.4% year-over-year against the Fed's 2% target, combined with labor market softening (unemployment at 4.1%), drives trader consensus for yields testing lower levels before 2027. Market-implied Fed funds futures project rates nearing 3.25% by mid-2025, tempering aggressive decline bets amid resilient U.S. growth. Watch October nonfarm payrolls on November 1 and the FOMC meeting on November 6-7 for catalysts that could steepen the disinflation trajectory or revive inflation fears.

The 10-year Treasury yield has retreated to around 4.18% following the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September—its first in four years—and dovish signals for two more quarter-point reductions by year-end. Cooling inflation, evidenced by September CPI rising just 2.4% year-over-year against the Fed's 2% target, combined with labor market softening (unemployment at 4.1%), drives trader consensus for yields testing lower levels before 2027. Market-implied Fed funds futures project rates nearing 3.25% by mid-2025, tempering aggressive decline bets amid resilient U.S. growth. Watch October nonfarm payrolls on November 1 and the FOMC meeting on November 6-7 for catalysts that could steepen the disinflation trajectory or revive inflation fears.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.0%" at 100%, followed by "3.9%" at 63%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" has generated $138.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is "4.0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.9%" at 63%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.