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Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

21°C 41%

20°C 26%

22°C 23%

23°C or higher 6.1%

Polymarket

$359,029 Vol.

21°C 41%

20°C 26%

22°C 23%

23°C or higher 6.1%

Polymarket

$359,029 Vol.

20°C

$7,044 Vol.

26%

21°C

$3,859 Vol.

41%

22°C

$11,040 Vol.

23%

23°C or higher

$5,792 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast models for Wellington indicate a maximum temperature of around 21°C on March 28, driven by a high-pressure ridge stabilizing conditions after recent frontal passages, with light northerlies and partial cloud cover limiting extremes. This aligns with trader consensus, where 21°C holds a 40.5% implied probability, reflecting model ensemble outputs clustering near this value amid typical late-autumn norms of 18–22°C. Cooler 20°C odds at 26% account for potential morning fog or sea breeze moderation, while 22°C (23%) and higher (7.1%) fade due to subdued solar heating and no heatwave signals. Updated hourly observations and 12Z model runs expected later today could refine these probabilities further.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$359,029
End Date
Mar 28, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest forecast models for Wellington indicate a maximum temperature of around 21°C on March 28, driven by a high-pressure ridge stabilizing conditions after recent frontal passages, with light northerlies and partial cloud cover limiting extremes. This aligns with trader consensus, where 21°C holds a 40.5% implied probability, reflecting model ensemble outputs clustering near this value amid typical late-autumn norms of 18–22°C. Cooler 20°C odds at 26% account for potential morning fog or sea breeze moderation, while 22°C (23%) and higher (7.1%) fade due to subdued solar heating and no heatwave signals. Updated hourly observations and 12Z model runs expected later today could refine these probabilities further.

MetService's latest forecast models for Wellington indicate a maximum temperature of around 21°C on March 28, driven by a high-pressure ridge stabilizing conditions after recent frontal passages, with light northerlies and partial cloud cover limiting extremes. This aligns with trader consensus, where 21°C holds a 40.5% implied probability, reflecting model ensemble outputs clustering near this value amid typical late-autumn norms of 18–22°C. Cooler 20°C odds at 26% account for potential morning fog or sea breeze moderation, while 22°C (23%) and higher (7.1%) fade due to subdued solar heating and no heatwave signals. Updated hourly observations and 12Z model runs expected later today could refine these probabilities further.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "21°C" at 41%, followed by "20°C" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?" has generated $359K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?" is "21°C" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "20°C" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Wellington on March 28?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.