ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts have driven trader consensus toward 19–21°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities tightly clustered amid a sharp warming trend from prior 8–13°C guidance. An upper-level ridge is ushering mild Atlantic air via southerly flow, peaking on Easter Sunday under a warm front, though IMGW holds cooler at 11–15°C due to expected partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Differentiating factors include model spreads on cloud cover limiting insolation versus advection strength boosting highs; historical early-April averages hover near 12°C, amplifying volatility. New ECMWF runs and GFS updates expected April 3–4 at Warsaw Chopin Airport station will clarify resolution paths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
20°C 26%
19°C 23%
21°C 20%
18°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
3%
17°C
7%
18°C
15%
19°C
23%
20°C
26%
21°C
20%
22°C or higher
13%
20°C 26%
19°C 23%
21°C 20%
18°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 5, 2026
12°C or below
$723 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,018 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,316 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$702 Vol.
3%
16°C
$369 Vol.
3%
17°C
$471 Vol.
7%
18°C
$734 Vol.
15%
19°C
$617 Vol.
23%
20°C
$480 Vol.
26%
21°C
$732 Vol.
20%
22°C or higher
$678 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts have driven trader consensus toward 19–21°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities tightly clustered amid a sharp warming trend from prior 8–13°C guidance. An upper-level ridge is ushering mild Atlantic air via southerly flow, peaking on Easter Sunday under a warm front, though IMGW holds cooler at 11–15°C due to expected partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Differentiating factors include model spreads on cloud cover limiting insolation versus advection strength boosting highs; historical early-April averages hover near 12°C, amplifying volatility. New ECMWF runs and GFS updates expected April 3–4 at Warsaw Chopin Airport station will clarify resolution paths.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$7,841End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts have driven trader consensus toward 19–21°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities tightly clustered amid a sharp warming trend from prior 8–13°C guidance. An upper-level ridge is ushering mild Atlantic air via southerly flow, peaking on Easter Sunday under a warm front, though IMGW holds cooler at 11–15°C due to expected partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Differentiating factors include model spreads on cloud cover limiting insolation versus advection strength boosting highs; historical early-April averages hover near 12°C, amplifying volatility. New ECMWF runs and GFS updates expected April 3–4 at Warsaw Chopin Airport station will clarify resolution paths.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,841End Date
Apr 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts have driven trader consensus toward 19–21°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities tightly clustered amid a sharp warming trend from prior 8–13°C guidance. An upper-level ridge is ushering mild Atlantic air via southerly flow, peaking on Easter Sunday under a warm front, though IMGW holds cooler at 11–15°C due to expected partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Differentiating factors include model spreads on cloud cover limiting insolation versus advection strength boosting highs; historical early-April averages hover near 12°C, amplifying volatility. New ECMWF runs and GFS updates expected April 3–4 at Warsaw Chopin Airport station will clarify resolution paths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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