Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83.5% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast ensembles and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on peak daytime readings around 21°C amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud breaks allowing solar heating. This morning's satellite observations confirmed reduced overnight cloud cover compared to yesterday's broader 18–22°C projections, tightening the range while Shanghai's urban heat island effect—boosting station measurements by 1–2°C—further supports the outcome. Historical March averages hover near 15°C, but this warm spell aligns with early spring patterns; scattered showers pose minor risk of capping at 20°C (0.1% odds), with hourly updates from Pudong and Xujiahui stations expected through afternoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 30?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 30?
21°C 74%
22°C 19.9%
23°C or higher 5.4%
16°C <1%
NEW
$186,071 Vol.
NEW
$186,071 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
74%
22°C
20%
23°C or higher
5%
21°C 74%
22°C 19.9%
23°C or higher 5.4%
16°C <1%
NEW
$186,071 Vol.
NEW
$186,071 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
16°C
$31,371 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$19,107 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$13,471 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$29,064 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$21,595 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$9,422 Vol.
74%
22°C
$7,945 Vol.
20%
23°C or higher
$24,784 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83.5% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast ensembles and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on peak daytime readings around 21°C amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud breaks allowing solar heating. This morning's satellite observations confirmed reduced overnight cloud cover compared to yesterday's broader 18–22°C projections, tightening the range while Shanghai's urban heat island effect—boosting station measurements by 1–2°C—further supports the outcome. Historical March averages hover near 15°C, but this warm spell aligns with early spring patterns; scattered showers pose minor risk of capping at 20°C (0.1% odds), with hourly updates from Pudong and Xujiahui stations expected through afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$186,071End Date
Mar 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83.5% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast ensembles and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on peak daytime readings around 21°C amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud breaks allowing solar heating. This morning's satellite observations confirmed reduced overnight cloud cover compared to yesterday's broader 18–22°C projections, tightening the range while Shanghai's urban heat island effect—boosting station measurements by 1–2°C—further supports the outcome. Historical March averages hover near 15°C, but this warm spell aligns with early spring patterns; scattered showers pose minor risk of capping at 20°C (0.1% odds), with hourly updates from Pudong and Xujiahui stations expected through afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$186,071End Date
Mar 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 83.5% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast ensembles and international models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on peak daytime readings around 21°C amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud breaks allowing solar heating. This morning's satellite observations confirmed reduced overnight cloud cover compared to yesterday's broader 18–22°C projections, tightening the range while Shanghai's urban heat island effect—boosting station measurements by 1–2°C—further supports the outcome. Historical March averages hover near 15°C, but this warm spell aligns with early spring patterns; scattered showers pose minor risk of capping at 20°C (0.1% odds), with hourly updates from Pudong and Xujiahui stations expected through afternoon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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