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Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

17°C 36%

18°C 22%

16°C 16%

19°C 9.6%

Polymarket

$20,823 Vol.

17°C 36%

18°C 22%

16°C 16%

19°C 9.6%

Polymarket

$20,823 Vol.

13°C or below

$2,734 Vol.

1%

14°C

$1,629 Vol.

1%

15°C

$2,793 Vol.

4%

16°C

$2,207 Vol.

16%

17°C

$1,835 Vol.

36%

18°C

$2,012 Vol.

22%

19°C

$1,661 Vol.

10%

20°C

$1,988 Vol.

3%

21°C

$1,454 Vol.

1%

22°C

$1,361 Vol.

1%

23°C or higher

$1,147 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33.5% probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching exactly 17°C on March 28, with 18°C close behind at 23.5%, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs showing peak daytime highs in the 16–19°C range under mild southerly flows. This positioning reflects recent stabilization after a cooler spell earlier in the week, where Atlantic high-pressure ridges have boosted spring-like warmth above the late-March climatological normal of about 16°C at Madrid-Barajas station. High uncertainty across outcomes stems from ensemble forecast spreads: clearer skies and low-level jet persistence favor 18–20°C, while increased cloud cover or weak fronts could cap at 15–16°C; extremes below 13°C or above 23°C face barriers from current upper-air patterns lacking cold outbreaks or heat domes. Watch AEMET's afternoon update for refined boundary-layer data.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,823
End Date
Mar 28, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33.5% probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching exactly 17°C on March 28, with 18°C close behind at 23.5%, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs showing peak daytime highs in the 16–19°C range under mild southerly flows. This positioning reflects recent stabilization after a cooler spell earlier in the week, where Atlantic high-pressure ridges have boosted spring-like warmth above the late-March climatological normal of about 16°C at Madrid-Barajas station. High uncertainty across outcomes stems from ensemble forecast spreads: clearer skies and low-level jet persistence favor 18–20°C, while increased cloud cover or weak fronts could cap at 15–16°C; extremes below 13°C or above 23°C face barriers from current upper-air patterns lacking cold outbreaks or heat domes. Watch AEMET's afternoon update for refined boundary-layer data.

Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 33.5% probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching exactly 17°C on March 28, with 18°C close behind at 23.5%, driven by the latest AEMET and ECMWF model runs showing peak daytime highs in the 16–19°C range under mild southerly flows. This positioning reflects recent stabilization after a cooler spell earlier in the week, where Atlantic high-pressure ridges have boosted spring-like warmth above the late-March climatological normal of about 16°C at Madrid-Barajas station. High uncertainty across outcomes stems from ensemble forecast spreads: clearer skies and low-level jet persistence favor 18–20°C, while increased cloud cover or weak fronts could cap at 15–16°C; extremes below 13°C or above 23°C face barriers from current upper-air patterns lacking cold outbreaks or heat domes. Watch AEMET's afternoon update for refined boundary-layer data.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "17°C" at 36%, followed by "18°C" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?" has generated $20.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?" is "17°C" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "18°C" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 28?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.