Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 40-43°F highs at Chicago O'Hare (KORD) today, driven by National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus projecting persistent overcast skies from low-level stratus, influenced by Lake Michigan moisture and weak upper-level troughing—conditions capping temperatures well below the 53°F climatological normal. The razor-thin split between 40-41°F (39.1% implied probability) and 42-43°F (38.0%) stems from subtle model differences in afternoon cloud thinning potential and boundary-layer mixing under light winds; fuller clearing remains unlikely without stronger solar heating or shear. Current morning readings near 41°F overcast underscore the tight race—watch hourly observations for resolution-defining peaks before midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on April 1?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?
40-41°F 44.6%
42-43°F 32%
44-45°F 8%
46-47°F 4.3%
$116,352 Vol.
$116,352 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
36-37°F
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
45%
42-43°F
32%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
4%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
<1%
52°F or higher
1%
40-41°F 44.6%
42-43°F 32%
44-45°F 8%
46-47°F 4.3%
$116,352 Vol.
$116,352 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
36-37°F
$12,640 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$27,757 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$8,384 Vol.
45%
42-43°F
$6,219 Vol.
32%
44-45°F
$6,922 Vol.
8%
46-47°F
$7,242 Vol.
4%
48-49°F
$5,840 Vol.
3%
50-51°F
$6,338 Vol.
<1%
52°F or higher
$19,411 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 40-43°F highs at Chicago O'Hare (KORD) today, driven by National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus projecting persistent overcast skies from low-level stratus, influenced by Lake Michigan moisture and weak upper-level troughing—conditions capping temperatures well below the 53°F climatological normal. The razor-thin split between 40-41°F (39.1% implied probability) and 42-43°F (38.0%) stems from subtle model differences in afternoon cloud thinning potential and boundary-layer mixing under light winds; fuller clearing remains unlikely without stronger solar heating or shear. Current morning readings near 41°F overcast underscore the tight race—watch hourly observations for resolution-defining peaks before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$116,352End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 40-43°F highs at Chicago O'Hare (KORD) today, driven by National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus projecting persistent overcast skies from low-level stratus, influenced by Lake Michigan moisture and weak upper-level troughing—conditions capping temperatures well below the 53°F climatological normal. The razor-thin split between 40-41°F (39.1% implied probability) and 42-43°F (38.0%) stems from subtle model differences in afternoon cloud thinning potential and boundary-layer mixing under light winds; fuller clearing remains unlikely without stronger solar heating or shear. Current morning readings near 41°F overcast underscore the tight race—watch hourly observations for resolution-defining peaks before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$116,352End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 40-43°F highs at Chicago O'Hare (KORD) today, driven by National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus projecting persistent overcast skies from low-level stratus, influenced by Lake Michigan moisture and weak upper-level troughing—conditions capping temperatures well below the 53°F climatological normal. The razor-thin split between 40-41°F (39.1% implied probability) and 42-43°F (38.0%) stems from subtle model differences in afternoon cloud thinning potential and boundary-layer mixing under light winds; fuller clearing remains unlikely without stronger solar heating or shear. Current morning readings near 41°F overcast underscore the tight race—watch hourly observations for resolution-defining peaks before midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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