National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high near 41°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport today, driving trader consensus toward 40-41°F (45% implied probability) and 42-43°F (31%), well below the April 1 climatological normal of 53°F. A cold front trailing record late-March warmth—O'Hare hit 87°F on March 30—has brought persistent cloud cover, northerly winds, and scattered showers, limiting diurnal heating despite longer spring daylight. Model clusters show tight agreement in the low-mid 40s, though partial afternoon clearing or reduced precipitation could push toward 44-45°F; hourly observations from official NOAA stations will resolve the market by midnight, capturing peak intraday temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on April 1?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 1?
40-41°F 47.8%
42-43°F 32%
44-45°F 8%
46-47°F 5.8%
$121,827 Vol.
$121,827 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
40-41°F
48%
42-43°F
32%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
6%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
1%
52°F or higher
1%
40-41°F 47.8%
42-43°F 32%
44-45°F 8%
46-47°F 5.8%
$121,827 Vol.
$121,827 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
40-41°F
$8,501 Vol.
48%
42-43°F
$6,284 Vol.
32%
44-45°F
$6,966 Vol.
8%
46-47°F
$7,252 Vol.
6%
48-49°F
$5,850 Vol.
3%
50-51°F
$6,363 Vol.
1%
52°F or higher
$19,577 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high near 41°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport today, driving trader consensus toward 40-41°F (45% implied probability) and 42-43°F (31%), well below the April 1 climatological normal of 53°F. A cold front trailing record late-March warmth—O'Hare hit 87°F on March 30—has brought persistent cloud cover, northerly winds, and scattered showers, limiting diurnal heating despite longer spring daylight. Model clusters show tight agreement in the low-mid 40s, though partial afternoon clearing or reduced precipitation could push toward 44-45°F; hourly observations from official NOAA stations will resolve the market by midnight, capturing peak intraday temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$121,827End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high near 41°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport today, driving trader consensus toward 40-41°F (45% implied probability) and 42-43°F (31%), well below the April 1 climatological normal of 53°F. A cold front trailing record late-March warmth—O'Hare hit 87°F on March 30—has brought persistent cloud cover, northerly winds, and scattered showers, limiting diurnal heating despite longer spring daylight. Model clusters show tight agreement in the low-mid 40s, though partial afternoon clearing or reduced precipitation could push toward 44-45°F; hourly observations from official NOAA stations will resolve the market by midnight, capturing peak intraday temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$121,827End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high near 41°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport today, driving trader consensus toward 40-41°F (45% implied probability) and 42-43°F (31%), well below the April 1 climatological normal of 53°F. A cold front trailing record late-March warmth—O'Hare hit 87°F on March 30—has brought persistent cloud cover, northerly winds, and scattered showers, limiting diurnal heating despite longer spring daylight. Model clusters show tight agreement in the low-mid 40s, though partial afternoon clearing or reduced precipitation could push toward 44-45°F; hourly observations from official NOAA stations will resolve the market by midnight, capturing peak intraday temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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