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Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?

Apr 3

Apr 4

Apr 5

Apr 6

Apr 3

Apr 4

Apr 5

Apr 6

19°C 43%

18°C 24%

20°C 22%

17°C 4.7%

Polymarket

$32,983 Vol.

19°C 43%

18°C 24%

20°C 22%

17°C 4.7%

Polymarket

$32,983 Vol.

13°C or below

$4,281 Vol.

<1%

14°C

$1,831 Vol.

<1%

15°C

$2,856 Vol.

<1%

16°C

$4,018 Vol.

1%

17°C

$2,622 Vol.

5%

18°C

$1,573 Vol.

24%

19°C

$1,289 Vol.

43%

20°C

$2,193 Vol.

22%

21°C

$5,120 Vol.

3%

22°C

$3,583 Vol.

2%

23°C or higher

$4,086 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 19°C as the leading outcome at 42.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models clustering highs around 19–20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southerly winds. Recent observations show April 2 highs at 20°C and April 3 at 22°C, with model updates over the past 24 hours indicating slight moderation due to increased cloud cover suppressing daytime heating, consistent with early spring patterns where Beijing averages 18–20°C highs. Inherent forecast uncertainty of 2–3°C remains at this 48-hour lead time, with new 00Z model runs and morning soundings on April 4 poised to sharpen probabilities before official measurement at Beijing Capital International Airport resolves the market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$32,983
End Date
Apr 4, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 19°C as the leading outcome at 42.5% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on April 4, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models clustering highs around 19–20°C amid persistent cloudy conditions and light southerly winds. Recent observations show April 2 highs at 20°C and April 3 at 22°C, with model updates over the past 24 hours indicating slight moderation due to increased cloud cover suppressing daytime heating, consistent with early spring patterns where Beijing averages 18–20°C highs. Inherent forecast uncertainty of 2–3°C remains at this 48-hour lead time, with new 00Z model runs and morning soundings on April 4 poised to sharpen probabilities before official measurement at Beijing Capital International Airport resolves the market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$32,983
End Date
Apr 4, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "19°C" at 43%, followed by "18°C" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?" has generated $33K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?" is "19°C" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "18°C" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Beijing on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.