Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No Prison Time" at 26.8% implied probability for Harvey Weinstein, driven by the April 2024 New York appeals court overturning his 2020 rape conviction on procedural grounds, ordering a retrial now delayed amid his health struggles—including recent heart surgery and hospitalization. This has fueled optimism for potential release or minimal additional time, as his separate 16-year California sentence faces ongoing appeals with no firm resolution date. Competitive dynamics hinge on Weinstein's age (72), frail condition limiting incarceration viability, and prosecutorial challenges in retrying #MeToo-era cases; 20-30 years (18.5%) and 10-20 years (18%) reflect uncertainty over appeal outcomes and trial timelines expected in 2025. Markets remain fluid pending court updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHarvey Weinstein prison time?
Harvey Weinstein prison time?
No Prison Time 26.3%
20-30 years 18.4%
10-20 years 18.0%
<5 years 10.8%
$680,329 Vol.
$680,329 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
No Prison Time
26%
<5 years
11%
5-10 years
9%
10-20 years
18%
20-30 years
18%
30+ years
5%
No Prison Time 26.3%
20-30 years 18.4%
10-20 years 18.0%
<5 years 10.8%
$680,329 Vol.
$680,329 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
No Prison Time
$291,437 Vol.
26%
<5 years
$48,420 Vol.
11%
5-10 years
$34,429 Vol.
9%
10-20 years
$120,772 Vol.
18%
20-30 years
$150,930 Vol.
18%
30+ years
$34,342 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No Prison Time" at 26.8% implied probability for Harvey Weinstein, driven by the April 2024 New York appeals court overturning his 2020 rape conviction on procedural grounds, ordering a retrial now delayed amid his health struggles—including recent heart surgery and hospitalization. This has fueled optimism for potential release or minimal additional time, as his separate 16-year California sentence faces ongoing appeals with no firm resolution date. Competitive dynamics hinge on Weinstein's age (72), frail condition limiting incarceration viability, and prosecutorial challenges in retrying #MeToo-era cases; 20-30 years (18.5%) and 10-20 years (18%) reflect uncertainty over appeal outcomes and trial timelines expected in 2025. Markets remain fluid pending court updates.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$680,329End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No Prison Time" at 26.8% implied probability for Harvey Weinstein, driven by the April 2024 New York appeals court overturning his 2020 rape conviction on procedural grounds, ordering a retrial now delayed amid his health struggles—including recent heart surgery and hospitalization. This has fueled optimism for potential release or minimal additional time, as his separate 16-year California sentence faces ongoing appeals with no firm resolution date. Competitive dynamics hinge on Weinstein's age (72), frail condition limiting incarceration viability, and prosecutorial challenges in retrying #MeToo-era cases; 20-30 years (18.5%) and 10-20 years (18%) reflect uncertainty over appeal outcomes and trial timelines expected in 2025. Markets remain fluid pending court updates.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$680,329End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward "No Prison Time" at 26.8% implied probability for Harvey Weinstein, driven by the April 2024 New York appeals court overturning his 2020 rape conviction on procedural grounds, ordering a retrial now delayed amid his health struggles—including recent heart surgery and hospitalization. This has fueled optimism for potential release or minimal additional time, as his separate 16-year California sentence faces ongoing appeals with no firm resolution date. Competitive dynamics hinge on Weinstein's age (72), frail condition limiting incarceration viability, and prosecutorial challenges in retrying #MeToo-era cases; 20-30 years (18.5%) and 10-20 years (18%) reflect uncertainty over appeal outcomes and trial timelines expected in 2025. Markets remain fluid pending court updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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