Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors an 80–90 per 100,000 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate through Week 11 (ending March 21, 2026), anchored by the CDC's latest FluView report showing a preliminary FluSurv-NET rate of 81.6—the third highest since the 2010–11 season amid 360,000 estimated season hospitalizations. This positioning stems from declining weekly rates to 1.1 per 100,000 population, down from Week 10's cumulative 80.0, with outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) falling below the national baseline to 2.9% as A(H3N2) and B viruses wane. FluSight ensemble forecasts further drops in new admissions. Realistic challenges include upward revisions from delayed reporting, though sustained downward trends make crossing 90 unlikely without an unforeseen surge. Next FluView updates expected soon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 11, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 11, 2026?
80–90 100.0%
<60 <1%
60–70 <1%
70–80 <1%
$26,901 Vol.
$26,901 Vol.
Mar 27, 2026
<60
No
60–70
No
70–80
No
80–90
Yes
90–100
No
100+
No
80–90 100.0%
<60 <1%
60–70 <1%
70–80 <1%
$26,901 Vol.
$26,901 Vol.
Mar 27, 2026
<60
$2,445 Vol.
No
60–70
$0 Vol.
No
70–80
$3,433 Vol.
No
80–90
$15,664 Vol.
Yes
90–100
$3,095 Vol.
No
100+
$2,264 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors an 80–90 per 100,000 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate through Week 11 (ending March 21, 2026), anchored by the CDC's latest FluView report showing a preliminary FluSurv-NET rate of 81.6—the third highest since the 2010–11 season amid 360,000 estimated season hospitalizations. This positioning stems from declining weekly rates to 1.1 per 100,000 population, down from Week 10's cumulative 80.0, with outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) falling below the national baseline to 2.9% as A(H3N2) and B viruses wane. FluSight ensemble forecasts further drops in new admissions. Realistic challenges include upward revisions from delayed reporting, though sustained downward trends make crossing 90 unlikely without an unforeseen surge. Next FluView updates expected soon.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$26,901End Date
Mar 27, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors an 80–90 per 100,000 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate through Week 11 (ending March 21, 2026), anchored by the CDC's latest FluView report showing a preliminary FluSurv-NET rate of 81.6—the third highest since the 2010–11 season amid 360,000 estimated season hospitalizations. This positioning stems from declining weekly rates to 1.1 per 100,000 population, down from Week 10's cumulative 80.0, with outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) falling below the national baseline to 2.9% as A(H3N2) and B viruses wane. FluSight ensemble forecasts further drops in new admissions. Realistic challenges include upward revisions from delayed reporting, though sustained downward trends make crossing 90 unlikely without an unforeseen surge. Next FluView updates expected soon.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$26,901End Date
Mar 27, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors an 80–90 per 100,000 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate through Week 11 (ending March 21, 2026), anchored by the CDC's latest FluView report showing a preliminary FluSurv-NET rate of 81.6—the third highest since the 2010–11 season amid 360,000 estimated season hospitalizations. This positioning stems from declining weekly rates to 1.1 per 100,000 population, down from Week 10's cumulative 80.0, with outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) falling below the national baseline to 2.9% as A(H3N2) and B viruses wane. FluSight ensemble forecasts further drops in new admissions. Realistic challenges include upward revisions from delayed reporting, though sustained downward trends make crossing 90 unlikely without an unforeseen surge. Next FluView updates expected soon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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