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Eurovision Winner 2026

Market icon

Eurovision Winner 2026

Finland 36.7%

France 12.5%

Denmark 10.7%

Greece 6.7%

Polymarket

$58,085,144 Vol.

Finland 36.7%

France 12.5%

Denmark 10.7%

Greece 6.7%

Polymarket

$58,085,144 Vol.

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Finland

$1,914,634 Vol.

37%

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France

$1,499,579 Vol.

13%

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Denmark

$1,025,590 Vol.

11%

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Greece

$1,392,138 Vol.

7%

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Australia

$1,268,514 Vol.

7%

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Israel

$1,288,527 Vol.

4%

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Ukraine

$1,198,671 Vol.

3%

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Sweden

$993,655 Vol.

3%

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Italy

$1,595,936 Vol.

2%

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Romania

$969,122 Vol.

2%

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Czechia

$835,417 Vol.

1%

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Cyprus

$1,165,382 Vol.

1%

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Malta

$1,062,719 Vol.

1%

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Bulgaria

$1,147,089 Vol.

1%

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Germany

$923,265 Vol.

1%

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Lithuania

$1,966,771 Vol.

1%

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Belgium

$1,273,852 Vol.

1%

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Croatia

$1,001,422 Vol.

1%

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Luxembourg

$1,076,649 Vol.

1%

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Moldova

$1,248,701 Vol.

1%

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Norway

$1,495,287 Vol.

1%

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Switzerland

$2,329,632 Vol.

1%

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United Kingdom

$722,509 Vol.

1%

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Albania

$2,368,724 Vol.

<1%

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Austria

$2,456,681 Vol.

<1%

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Estonia

$2,845,289 Vol.

<1%

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Latvia

$2,406,381 Vol.

<1%

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San Marino

$2,651,416 Vol.

<1%

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Armenia

$2,390,788 Vol.

<1%

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Azerbaijan

$2,761,578 Vol.

<1%

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Georgia

$2,498,459 Vol.

<1%

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Montenegro

$3,013,423 Vol.

<1%

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Poland

$2,232,963 Vol.

<1%

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Serbia

$845,108 Vol.

<1%

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Portugal

$2,220,311 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands a 36.7% implied probability as the clear frontrunner, fueled by their dominant UMK national selection victory—securing both jury and televote wins—and sustained momentum from leading OGAE fan polls, including France's 12 points. The track's violin-infused pop hooks evoke Finland's past televote surges like "Cha Cha Cha," positioning it for broad appeal in Vienna. France's Monroe ("Regarde!") holds 12.5% on strong jury-friendly live performances at pre-parties, while Denmark (10.7%) and rising challengers Greece (6.8%) and Australia (6.6%, Delta Goodrem's "Eclipse") gain from recent semi-final running order reveals and community rankings. With semis on May 12/14, rehearsal buzz and big-five voting blocs could shift trader sentiment rapidly.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$58,085,144
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands a 36.7% implied probability as the clear frontrunner, fueled by their dominant UMK national selection victory—securing both jury and televote wins—and sustained momentum from leading OGAE fan polls, including France's 12 points. The track's violin-infused pop hooks evoke Finland's past televote surges like "Cha Cha Cha," positioning it for broad appeal in Vienna. France's Monroe ("Regarde!") holds 12.5% on strong jury-friendly live performances at pre-parties, while Denmark (10.7%) and rising challengers Greece (6.8%) and Australia (6.6%, Delta Goodrem's "Eclipse") gain from recent semi-final running order reveals and community rankings. With semis on May 12/14, rehearsal buzz and big-five voting blocs could shift trader sentiment rapidly.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$58,085,144
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Related

Market icon

Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

22%
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Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

71%
Market icon

Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

89%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovision Winner 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Finland" at 37%, followed by "France" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eurovision Winner 2026" has generated $58.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 6, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eurovision Winner 2026," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovision Winner 2026" is "Finland" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "France" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovision Winner 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.