Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a cautious outlook for WTI crude oil (CL) surpassing key resistance levels by June 30, with implied probabilities hovering around 35-45% for upside targets amid softening demand signals. Primary drivers include building U.S. inventories—EIA data showed a 4.2 million barrel surplus last week—and persistent economic headwinds from elevated Fed funds rates curbing global growth, particularly in China. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide tailwind potential, but Saudi Arabia's production hikes cap gains. Watch Thursday's EIA storage report and June 12 FOMC for demand cues; breaching $82.50 could shift odds higher, though sub-$80 retest looms on recession fears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
$2,347,093 Vol.
↑ $200
13%
↑ $175
15%
↑ $150
22%
↑ $140
28%
↑ $130
35%
↑ $120
43%
↑ $115
49%
↑ $110
47%
↑ $105
59%
↑ $100
70%
↓ $85
82%
↓ $80
71%
↓ $70
42%
↓ $60
25%
↓ $55
19%
↓ $52
14%
↓ $50
7%
↓ $47
6%
↓ $45
3%
↓ $40
3%
↓ $35
2%
$2,347,093 Vol.
↑ $200
13%
↑ $175
15%
↑ $150
22%
↑ $140
28%
↑ $130
35%
↑ $120
43%
↑ $115
49%
↑ $110
47%
↑ $105
59%
↑ $100
70%
↓ $85
82%
↓ $80
71%
↓ $70
42%
↓ $60
25%
↓ $55
19%
↓ $52
14%
↓ $50
7%
↓ $47
6%
↓ $45
3%
↓ $40
3%
↓ $35
2%
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a cautious outlook for WTI crude oil (CL) surpassing key resistance levels by June 30, with implied probabilities hovering around 35-45% for upside targets amid softening demand signals. Primary drivers include building U.S. inventories—EIA data showed a 4.2 million barrel surplus last week—and persistent economic headwinds from elevated Fed funds rates curbing global growth, particularly in China. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide tailwind potential, but Saudi Arabia's production hikes cap gains. Watch Thursday's EIA storage report and June 12 FOMC for demand cues; breaching $82.50 could shift odds higher, though sub-$80 retest looms on recession fears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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