Name: Chubb and AIG merger announced by January 31?
Start: 2025-12-13T02:26:10.044424Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that American International Group (AIG) Insurance will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Chubb Insurance, or vice versa, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Chubb or AIG will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Chubb or AIG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Chubb and AIG merger announced by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses will be, have been, or are being acquired by or merged with Paramount Global by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the merger or acquisition is ultimately completed.

Any merger or acquisition will qualify regardless of whether it regards all of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses or only a subset of those businesses (including, for example, HBO / Max, Warner Bros. Pictures, Warner Bros. Television, or related streaming platforms and content libraries).

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Paramount Global and/or Warner Bros. Discovery; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that the Chrome web browser will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Google/Alphabet will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition or merger actually occurs.

Partnerships, integrations, licensing deals, or other forms of collaboration between Chrome and OpenAI that do not constitute an acquisition or merger will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google/Alphabet, or OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will OpenAI acquire Chrome by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Perplexity AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Perplexity AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Perplexity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Perplexity in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Snapchat by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where Snapchat is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between Snapchat and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Snapchat and/or its leadership, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Snapchat acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cluely announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Cluely.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Cluely declare bankruptcy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will iRobot announce bankruptcy before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) lists publicly tradable event-based contracts specifically related to sports at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from CME Group (https://www.cmegroup.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CME list sports event contracts by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that the Chrome web browser will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Perplexity by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Google/Alphabet will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition or merger actually occurs.

Partnerships, integrations, licensing deals, or other forms of collaboration between Chrome and Perplexity that do not constitute an acquisition or merger will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google/Alphabet, or Perplexity; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Perplexity acquire Chrome in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Cloudflare may classify as Critical.

Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.

If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, definitive evidence is made public confirming that the US government orchestrated or was directly involved in the September 11, 2001 attacks. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be publicly released information from the U.S. government.


Was 9/11 an inside job?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Clarity Act signed into law in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citigroup launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be officially announced and made available for transactions by Citigroup or a subsidiary under its direct control.

The token must be actively transferrable and/or tradable; announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Citigroup and its representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Citigroup launches a USD stablecoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Kash Patel is engaged to be married by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Kash Patel has married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.  

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Kash Patel or one of his representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kash Patel engaged in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.

The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. 

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?     

Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits which have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.

A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.

If the bill is signed into law before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes," regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally acquires any part of Canadian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Acquisition must be through official government action, such as annexation, treaty, or legislation.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.



Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at any point before March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and February 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by February 4?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ubisoft announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Ubisoft.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robinhood’s recently acquired Designated Contract Market (DCM), MIAXdx, self-certifies at least one sports-related event-based contract with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at any point before March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC, Robinhood, or MIAXdx; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Chubb and AIG merger announced by January 31?

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Market Context

Chubb and AIG merger announced by January 31?

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Chubb and AIG merger announced by January 31?

Order Book

Market Context

Chubb and AIG merger announced by January 31?

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