Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker—triggered by S&P 500 declines of 7%, 13%, or 20%—before 2027, reflecting the index's sustained rally to around 6,500 by late March 2026 and beyond amid resilient corporate earnings and cooling inflation. VIX levels near 18 as of April 15 signal moderate volatility, down from March spikes tied to geopolitical tensions like U.S.-Iran frictions that eased with a tentative ceasefire, averting any near-misses since the last triggers in 2020. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores low crash risk in the ongoing bull market, with key catalysts including Q1 earnings reports, April nonfarm payrolls, and the May FOMC meeting potentially influencing rate cut expectations and risk appetite.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$43,785 Vol.
$43,785 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$43,785 Vol.
$43,785 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker—triggered by S&P 500 declines of 7%, 13%, or 20%—before 2027, reflecting the index's sustained rally to around 6,500 by late March 2026 and beyond amid resilient corporate earnings and cooling inflation. VIX levels near 18 as of April 15 signal moderate volatility, down from March spikes tied to geopolitical tensions like U.S.-Iran frictions that eased with a tentative ceasefire, averting any near-misses since the last triggers in 2020. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores low crash risk in the ongoing bull market, with key catalysts including Q1 earnings reports, April nonfarm payrolls, and the May FOMC meeting potentially influencing rate cut expectations and risk appetite.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$43,785End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker—triggered by S&P 500 declines of 7%, 13%, or 20%—before 2027, reflecting the index's sustained rally to around 6,500 by late March 2026 and beyond amid resilient corporate earnings and cooling inflation. VIX levels near 18 as of April 15 signal moderate volatility, down from March spikes tied to geopolitical tensions like U.S.-Iran frictions that eased with a tentative ceasefire, averting any near-misses since the last triggers in 2020. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores low crash risk in the ongoing bull market, with key catalysts including Q1 earnings reports, April nonfarm payrolls, and the May FOMC meeting potentially influencing rate cut expectations and risk appetite.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$43,785End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker—triggered by S&P 500 declines of 7%, 13%, or 20%—before 2027, reflecting the index's sustained rally to around 6,500 by late March 2026 and beyond amid resilient corporate earnings and cooling inflation. VIX levels near 18 as of April 15 signal moderate volatility, down from March spikes tied to geopolitical tensions like U.S.-Iran frictions that eased with a tentative ceasefire, averting any near-misses since the last triggers in 2020. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores low crash risk in the ongoing bull market, with key catalysts including Q1 earnings reports, April nonfarm payrolls, and the May FOMC meeting potentially influencing rate cut expectations and risk appetite.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions