Recent resumption of bilateral consultations between China and the Philippines on March 27–28 in Fujian marked the first formal South China Sea talks in over a year, with both sides agreeing to enhance dialogue, properly manage maritime situations, and explore coast guard cooperation to prevent incidents. This de-escalation signal follows gray-zone confrontations, including a March 30 near-collision between warships near Sabina Shoal, Chinese radar locks on Philippine vessels, and harassment of Filipino fishing boats by coast guard and militia near Scarborough Shoal earlier in March. Despite China's patrol assertions and opposition to Manila's renaming of features on April 2, traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027, reflecting the pattern of contained tensions through diplomacy rather than escalation to armed conflict, amid ongoing ASEAN Code of Conduct negotiations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$208,928 Vol.
$208,928 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$208,928 Vol.
$208,928 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent resumption of bilateral consultations between China and the Philippines on March 27–28 in Fujian marked the first formal South China Sea talks in over a year, with both sides agreeing to enhance dialogue, properly manage maritime situations, and explore coast guard cooperation to prevent incidents. This de-escalation signal follows gray-zone confrontations, including a March 30 near-collision between warships near Sabina Shoal, Chinese radar locks on Philippine vessels, and harassment of Filipino fishing boats by coast guard and militia near Scarborough Shoal earlier in March. Despite China's patrol assertions and opposition to Manila's renaming of features on April 2, traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027, reflecting the pattern of contained tensions through diplomacy rather than escalation to armed conflict, amid ongoing ASEAN Code of Conduct negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$208,928End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent resumption of bilateral consultations between China and the Philippines on March 27–28 in Fujian marked the first formal South China Sea talks in over a year, with both sides agreeing to enhance dialogue, properly manage maritime situations, and explore coast guard cooperation to prevent incidents. This de-escalation signal follows gray-zone confrontations, including a March 30 near-collision between warships near Sabina Shoal, Chinese radar locks on Philippine vessels, and harassment of Filipino fishing boats by coast guard and militia near Scarborough Shoal earlier in March. Despite China's patrol assertions and opposition to Manila's renaming of features on April 2, traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027, reflecting the pattern of contained tensions through diplomacy rather than escalation to armed conflict, amid ongoing ASEAN Code of Conduct negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$208,928End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent resumption of bilateral consultations between China and the Philippines on March 27–28 in Fujian marked the first formal South China Sea talks in over a year, with both sides agreeing to enhance dialogue, properly manage maritime situations, and explore coast guard cooperation to prevent incidents. This de-escalation signal follows gray-zone confrontations, including a March 30 near-collision between warships near Sabina Shoal, Chinese radar locks on Philippine vessels, and harassment of Filipino fishing boats by coast guard and militia near Scarborough Shoal earlier in March. Despite China's patrol assertions and opposition to Manila's renaming of features on April 2, traders price a 77.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027, reflecting the pattern of contained tensions through diplomacy rather than escalation to armed conflict, amid ongoing ASEAN Code of Conduct negotiations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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