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World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Market icon
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%

Flávio Bolsonaro 40.1%

Renan Santos 5.9%

Fernando Haddad 4.0%

Polymarket

$36,819,862 Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%

Flávio Bolsonaro 40.1%

Renan Santos 5.9%

Fernando Haddad 4.0%

Polymarket

$36,819,862 Vol.

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,282,916 Vol.

44%

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$3,783,568 Vol.

40%

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Renan Santos

$3,554,511 Vol.

6%

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Fernando Haddad

$2,937,324 Vol.

4%

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Ronaldo Caiado

$564,861 Vol.

2%

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Romeu Zema

$223,224 Vol.

1%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$2,470,599 Vol.

1%

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Tarcisio de Freitas

$5,920,500 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$2,856,551 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$4,971,649 Vol.

<1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$205,067 Vol.

<1%

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Ratinho Júnior

$4,257,560 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Leite

$524,731 Vol.

<1%

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Camilo Santana

$267,876 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including a March 27-29 Nexus survey showing incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro both at 43% in the first round, alongside AtlasIntel's runoff simulation with Flávio at 47.6% over Lula's 46.6% and a Reuters March 30 tie, underpin Polymarket's tight trader consensus ahead of Brazil's October 4 presidential election and potential runoff. Lula's March 31 confirmation of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate seeks to consolidate center-left support amid recovering approval ratings, while Flávio leverages his father's enduring base on the right as Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible until 2030. The race stays neck-and-neck due to polarized voters and economic pressures; separation could arise from party conventions by August, fiscal policy shifts, or scandals influencing undecideds in swing regions.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$36,819,862
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including a March 27-29 Nexus survey showing incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro both at 43% in the first round, alongside AtlasIntel's runoff simulation with Flávio at 47.6% over Lula's 46.6% and a Reuters March 30 tie, underpin Polymarket's tight trader consensus ahead of Brazil's October 4 presidential election and potential runoff. Lula's March 31 confirmation of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate seeks to consolidate center-left support amid recovering approval ratings, while Flávio leverages his father's enduring base on the right as Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible until 2030. The race stays neck-and-neck due to polarized voters and economic pressures; separation could arise from party conventions by August, fiscal policy shifts, or scandals influencing undecideds in swing regions.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$36,819,862
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

Market icon

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

60%
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Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

39%
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

41%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 44%, followed by "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election" has generated $36.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election" is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.