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World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Market icon
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Ronaldo Caiado 37%

Renan Santos 32%

Romeu Zema 12%

Fernando Haddad 8.2%

Polymarket

$157,746 Vol.

Ronaldo Caiado 37%

Renan Santos 32%

Romeu Zema 12%

Fernando Haddad 8.2%

Polymarket

$157,746 Vol.

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Ronaldo Caiado

$6,322 Vol.

37%

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Renan Santos

$17,661 Vol.

32%

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Romeu Zema

$2,819 Vol.

12%

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Fernando Haddad

$11,586 Vol.

8%

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$2,182 Vol.

5%

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$2,099 Vol.

4%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$1,779 Vol.

3%

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Ratinho Júnior

$89,575 Vol.

2%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$16,651 Vol.

1%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$1,628 Vol.

1%

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Tarcisio de Freitas

$1,850 Vol.

<1%

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Camilo Santana

$1,635 Vol.

<1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$1,958 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Trader consensus favors Ronaldo Caiado at 37% implied probability for third place in Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first-round vote, driven by the PSD's official nomination of the Goiás governor as its pre-candidate on March 30, positioning him to consolidate center-right support amid a fragmented field behind front-runners Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Renan Santos trails closely at 31.5%, boosted by his third-place showing in the March 18-23 AtlasIntel poll as the MBL/Missão outsider surging past rivals like Romeu Zema. Recent polls show third-place votes at 3-5%, with high undecideds and Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal heightening volatility; further endorsements, party mergers, or new surveys could tip the balance before campaign deadlines.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$157,746
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Trader consensus favors Ronaldo Caiado at 37% implied probability for third place in Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential first-round vote, driven by the PSD's official nomination of the Goiás governor as its pre-candidate on March 30, positioning him to consolidate center-right support amid a fragmented field behind front-runners Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Renan Santos trails closely at 31.5%, boosted by his third-place showing in the March 18-23 AtlasIntel poll as the MBL/Missão outsider surging past rivals like Romeu Zema. Recent polls show third-place votes at 3-5%, with high undecideds and Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal heightening volatility; further endorsements, party mergers, or new surveys could tip the balance before campaign deadlines.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$157,746
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

Market icon

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

59%
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

40%
Market icon

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

14%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ronaldo Caiado" at 37%, followed by "Renan Santos" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" has generated $157.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" is "Ronaldo Caiado" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Renan Santos" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.