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icon for Bahia Governor Election Winner
Elections·Brazil

Bahia Governor Election Winner

icon for Bahia Governor Election Winner
Elections·Brazil

Bahia Governor Election Winner

Jerônimo Rodrigues 59%

ACM Neto 41%

João Roma <1%

José Carlos Aleluia <1%

Polymarket

$173,376 Vol.

Jerônimo Rodrigues 59%

ACM Neto 41%

João Roma <1%

José Carlos Aleluia <1%

Polymarket

$173,376 Vol.

icon for Jerônimo Rodrigues

Jerônimo Rodrigues

$62,735 Vol.

59%

icon for ACM Neto

ACM Neto

$68,515 Vol.

41%

icon for João Roma

João Roma

$5,186 Vol.

<1%

icon for José Carlos Aleluia

José Carlos Aleluia

$11,988 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kleber Rosa

Kleber Rosa

$13,880 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa

Rui Costa

$5,747 Vol.

<1%

icon for Bruno Soares Reis

Bruno Soares Reis

$5,325 Vol.

<1%

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late September shows a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), with both institutes reporting technical ties within margins of error in first- and second-round scenarios. Jerônimo has narrowed earlier gaps, posting gains of several points since August amid roughly 56% government approval. The October 4 first-round vote, with a possible runoff on October 25, features negligible support for minor candidates such as João Roma or José Carlos Aleluia. Traders appear to price in Bahia’s historical PT strength and incumbency effects, assigning Jerônimo a modest edge in implied probability despite the competitive polling environment.

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$173,376
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late September shows a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), with both institutes reporting technical ties within margins of error in first- and second-round scenarios. Jerônimo has narrowed earlier gaps, posting gains of several points since August amid roughly 56% government approval. The October 4 first-round vote, with a possible runoff on October 25, features negligible support for minor candidates such as João Roma or José Carlos Aleluia. Traders appear to price in Bahia’s historical PT strength and incumbency effects, assigning Jerônimo a modest edge in implied probability despite the competitive polling environment.

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$173,376
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bahia Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jerônimo Rodrigues" at 59%, followed by "ACM Neto" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bahia Governor Election Winner" has generated $173.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Bahia Governor Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bahia Governor Election Winner" is "Jerônimo Rodrigues" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ACM Neto" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bahia Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.