Recent polling for the October 4 first-round Bahia gubernatorial election shows a technical tie or narrow ACM Neto lead over incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues, with most surveys placing the União Brasil candidate between 42-49% and the PT governor at 38-47% within margins of error. Neto has emphasized public security while Rodrigues has highlighted ties to the federal administration; both face low single-digit support for minor-party rivals. The contest echoes their 2022 matchup and is expected to advance to an October 25 runoff absent a first-round majority. Trader pricing favoring Neto aligns with slight edges in several late-September aggregates and his stronger spontaneous recall, though undecided voters and regional turnout patterns remain key variables ahead of the vote.