Recent polling in the final week before the October 4 first-round vote shows ACM Neto and incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues in a technical tie, with results fluctuating within margins of error across institutes. The contest repeats the 2022 runoff matchup, featuring a consolidated opposition coalition behind the former Salvador mayor against the Workers’ Party governor’s effort to secure re-election with national party support. Voter indecision and blank/null intentions remain elevated, while campaign messaging centers on public security versus continuity with federal programs. The narrow market pricing reflects this stability in head-to-head positioning, with separation likely hinging on turnout in key regions or any last-minute shifts among undecided voters ahead of the potential October 25 runoff.