The Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 2026 first-round vote. Recent polling, including a September 24 Paraná Pesquisas survey of 1,400 voters, shows the candidates in a technical tie within the 2.7-point margin of error: Neto at 46.7% and Rodrigues at 42% in the stimulated first-round scenario, with similar results in second-round simulations. Earlier August and September surveys from multiple institutes have fluctuated between slight leads for each, underscoring high uncertainty and limited support for minor candidates. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency and government approval ratings near 56%, while Neto draws on strong urban backing in Salvador; these dynamics have produced the current trader consensus favoring a narrow edge for the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 59%
ACM Neto 42%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$172,774 Vol.
$172,774 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Jerônimo Rodrigues
59%
ACM Neto
42%
João Roma
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 59%
ACM Neto 42%
João Roma <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$172,774 Vol.
$172,774 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$62,729 Vol.
59%
ACM Neto
$67,919 Vol.
42%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$11,988 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$13,880 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 2026 first-round vote. Recent polling, including a September 24 Paraná Pesquisas survey of 1,400 voters, shows the candidates in a technical tie within the 2.7-point margin of error: Neto at 46.7% and Rodrigues at 42% in the stimulated first-round scenario, with similar results in second-round simulations. Earlier August and September surveys from multiple institutes have fluctuated between slight leads for each, underscoring high uncertainty and limited support for minor candidates. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency and government approval ratings near 56%, while Neto draws on strong urban backing in Salvador; these dynamics have produced the current trader consensus favoring a narrow edge for the incumbent.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$172,774End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 2026 first-round vote. Recent polling, including a September 24 Paraná Pesquisas survey of 1,400 voters, shows the candidates in a technical tie within the 2.7-point margin of error: Neto at 46.7% and Rodrigues at 42% in the stimulated first-round scenario, with similar results in second-round simulations. Earlier August and September surveys from multiple institutes have fluctuated between slight leads for each, underscoring high uncertainty and limited support for minor candidates. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency and government approval ratings near 56%, while Neto draws on strong urban backing in Salvador; these dynamics have produced the current trader consensus favoring a narrow edge for the incumbent.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$172,774End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...The Bahia gubernatorial race remains a tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 2026 first-round vote. Recent polling, including a September 24 Paraná Pesquisas survey of 1,400 voters, shows the candidates in a technical tie within the 2.7-point margin of error: Neto at 46.7% and Rodrigues at 42% in the stimulated first-round scenario, with similar results in second-round simulations. Earlier August and September surveys from multiple institutes have fluctuated between slight leads for each, underscoring high uncertainty and limited support for minor candidates. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency and government approval ratings near 56%, while Neto draws on strong urban backing in Salvador; these dynamics have produced the current trader consensus favoring a narrow edge for the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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