The tight trader consensus around the Bahia governor race stems from a polarized rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil. Recent surveys from Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data show technical ties or narrow first-round leads that alternate by pollster, reflecting Rodrigues's stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure gains alongside ACM Neto's consolidation of center-right backing after his party's 2025 break with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs. This setup leaves little room for separation before the October 2026 election, though shifts in national alliances or late campaign momentum could alter the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 51%
ACM Neto 49%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$20,619 Vol.
$20,619 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
51%
ACM Neto
49%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 51%
ACM Neto 49%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$20,619 Vol.
$20,619 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$5,169 Vol.
51%
ACM Neto
$5,147 Vol.
49%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,192 Vol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$2,035 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$1,608 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,702 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,766 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight trader consensus around the Bahia governor race stems from a polarized rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil. Recent surveys from Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data show technical ties or narrow first-round leads that alternate by pollster, reflecting Rodrigues's stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure gains alongside ACM Neto's consolidation of center-right backing after his party's 2025 break with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs. This setup leaves little room for separation before the October 2026 election, though shifts in national alliances or late campaign momentum could alter the balance.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$20,619End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight trader consensus around the Bahia governor race stems from a polarized rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil. Recent surveys from Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data show technical ties or narrow first-round leads that alternate by pollster, reflecting Rodrigues's stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure gains alongside ACM Neto's consolidation of center-right backing after his party's 2025 break with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs. This setup leaves little room for separation before the October 2026 election, though shifts in national alliances or late campaign momentum could alter the balance.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,619End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight trader consensus around the Bahia governor race stems from a polarized rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil. Recent surveys from Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data show technical ties or narrow first-round leads that alternate by pollster, reflecting Rodrigues's stable approval ratings near 56-61 percent on education and infrastructure gains alongside ACM Neto's consolidation of center-right backing after his party's 2025 break with the Lula administration and alignment with right-wing blocs. This setup leaves little room for separation before the October 2026 election, though shifts in national alliances or late campaign momentum could alter the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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