Argentina's official ARS/USD rate at end-2026 trades in a tight contest between the sub-1600 bracket at 42.5% implied probability and the 1600–1699 range at 33.5%, reflecting trader consensus on the pace of depreciation under President Milei's inflation-linked crawling band regime introduced in January 2026. The band now expands monthly in line with lagged inflation readings—recently 2.5–2.8%—while the central bank targets reserve accumulation through dollar purchases and IMF-supported external financing to meet 2026 debt obligations. Persistent year-over-year inflation near 33% in mid-2026, alongside gradual FX liberalization and capital account easing, continues to pressure the nominal rate from its current level near 1490, with reserve dynamics and fiscal outcomes serving as key swing factors that could shift the distribution toward lower or higher brackets by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,559 Vol.
$21,559 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
45%
1600.00–1699.99
33%
1700.00–1799.99
8%
1800.00–1899.99
6%
1900.00–1999.99
1%
2000.00+
4%
$21,559 Vol.
$21,559 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
$2,450 Vol.
45%
1600.00–1699.99
$1,980 Vol.
33%
1700.00–1799.99
$2,198 Vol.
8%
1800.00–1899.99
$1,626 Vol.
6%
1900.00–1999.99
$11,566 Vol.
1%
2000.00+
$1,740 Vol.
4%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Argentina's official ARS/USD rate at end-2026 trades in a tight contest between the sub-1600 bracket at 42.5% implied probability and the 1600–1699 range at 33.5%, reflecting trader consensus on the pace of depreciation under President Milei's inflation-linked crawling band regime introduced in January 2026. The band now expands monthly in line with lagged inflation readings—recently 2.5–2.8%—while the central bank targets reserve accumulation through dollar purchases and IMF-supported external financing to meet 2026 debt obligations. Persistent year-over-year inflation near 33% in mid-2026, alongside gradual FX liberalization and capital account easing, continues to pressure the nominal rate from its current level near 1490, with reserve dynamics and fiscal outcomes serving as key swing factors that could shift the distribution toward lower or higher brackets by year-end.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$21,559End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Argentina's official ARS/USD rate at end-2026 trades in a tight contest between the sub-1600 bracket at 42.5% implied probability and the 1600–1699 range at 33.5%, reflecting trader consensus on the pace of depreciation under President Milei's inflation-linked crawling band regime introduced in January 2026. The band now expands monthly in line with lagged inflation readings—recently 2.5–2.8%—while the central bank targets reserve accumulation through dollar purchases and IMF-supported external financing to meet 2026 debt obligations. Persistent year-over-year inflation near 33% in mid-2026, alongside gradual FX liberalization and capital account easing, continues to pressure the nominal rate from its current level near 1490, with reserve dynamics and fiscal outcomes serving as key swing factors that could shift the distribution toward lower or higher brackets by year-end.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$21,559End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Argentina's official ARS/USD rate at end-2026 trades in a tight contest between the sub-1600 bracket at 42.5% implied probability and the 1600–1699 range at 33.5%, reflecting trader consensus on the pace of depreciation under President Milei's inflation-linked crawling band regime introduced in January 2026. The band now expands monthly in line with lagged inflation readings—recently 2.5–2.8%—while the central bank targets reserve accumulation through dollar purchases and IMF-supported external financing to meet 2026 debt obligations. Persistent year-over-year inflation near 33% in mid-2026, alongside gradual FX liberalization and capital account easing, continues to pressure the nominal rate from its current level near 1490, with reserve dynamics and fiscal outcomes serving as key swing factors that could shift the distribution toward lower or higher brackets by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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