Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 37% probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, with the 1600–1699 bracket at 27%, driven primarily by the BCRA's February Market Expectations Survey (REM) forecasting 1707 ARS/USD amid a new crawling band regime launched January 2026 that widens monthly by inflation—recently 2.9% in February, supporting annual projections of 26.1%. BCRA's aggressive dollar purchases have lifted reserves to Milei-era highs, stabilizing the peso from March levels near 1400 while interest rates collapsed to 20%. Fiscal surplus maintenance and 4.3% GDP growth outlook reinforce moderate depreciation, though election-year pressures could accelerate the band toward 1700–1800 brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$11,859 Vol.
$11,859 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
37%
1600.00–1699.99
27%
1700.00–1799.99
18%
1800.00–1899.99
17%
1900.00–1999.99
9%
2000.00+
7%
$11,859 Vol.
$11,859 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1600.00
$0 Vol.
37%
1600.00–1699.99
$0 Vol.
27%
1700.00–1799.99
$0 Vol.
18%
1800.00–1899.99
$0 Vol.
17%
1900.00–1999.99
$10,952 Vol.
9%
2000.00+
$907 Vol.
7%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 37% probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, with the 1600–1699 bracket at 27%, driven primarily by the BCRA's February Market Expectations Survey (REM) forecasting 1707 ARS/USD amid a new crawling band regime launched January 2026 that widens monthly by inflation—recently 2.9% in February, supporting annual projections of 26.1%. BCRA's aggressive dollar purchases have lifted reserves to Milei-era highs, stabilizing the peso from March levels near 1400 while interest rates collapsed to 20%. Fiscal surplus maintenance and 4.3% GDP growth outlook reinforce moderate depreciation, though election-year pressures could accelerate the band toward 1700–1800 brackets.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$11,859End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 37% probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, with the 1600–1699 bracket at 27%, driven primarily by the BCRA's February Market Expectations Survey (REM) forecasting 1707 ARS/USD amid a new crawling band regime launched January 2026 that widens monthly by inflation—recently 2.9% in February, supporting annual projections of 26.1%. BCRA's aggressive dollar purchases have lifted reserves to Milei-era highs, stabilizing the peso from March levels near 1400 while interest rates collapsed to 20%. Fiscal surplus maintenance and 4.3% GDP growth outlook reinforce moderate depreciation, though election-year pressures could accelerate the band toward 1700–1800 brackets.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$11,859End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 37% probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate below 1600 by end-2026, with the 1600–1699 bracket at 27%, driven primarily by the BCRA's February Market Expectations Survey (REM) forecasting 1707 ARS/USD amid a new crawling band regime launched January 2026 that widens monthly by inflation—recently 2.9% in February, supporting annual projections of 26.1%. BCRA's aggressive dollar purchases have lifted reserves to Milei-era highs, stabilizing the peso from March levels near 1400 while interest rates collapsed to 20%. Fiscal surplus maintenance and 4.3% GDP growth outlook reinforce moderate depreciation, though election-year pressures could accelerate the band toward 1700–1800 brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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