Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 56.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate surpassing 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the BCRA's crawling peg regime with inflation-linked bands—currently featuring an upper limit of 1649 ARS/USD as of March 27, against a minorista rate of 1404. Recent fiscal slippage, with March's primary budget balance plunging to 1.4 billion pesos from 3.1 billion prior, has heightened devaluation risks amid fragile reserves and monthly band expansions tied to 2-3% inflation prints. Stabilization efforts under President Milei, including moderated inflation and growth forecasts of 3-4%, support this positioning, though policy execution and upcoming Q2 fiscal releases remain key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1600.00+ 49%
<1250.00 13.7%
1500.00–1549.99 7.6%
1350.00–1399.99 7.1%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1250.00
14%
1250.00–1299.99
13%
1300.00–1349.99
5%
1350.00–1399.99
7%
1400.00–1449.99
6%
1450.00–1499.99
8%
1500.00–1549.99
16%
1550.00–1599.99
6%
1600.00+
56%
1600.00+ 49%
<1250.00 13.7%
1500.00–1549.99 7.6%
1350.00–1399.99 7.1%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<1250.00
$0 Vol.
14%
1250.00–1299.99
$0 Vol.
13%
1300.00–1349.99
$0 Vol.
5%
1350.00–1399.99
$0 Vol.
7%
1400.00–1449.99
$0 Vol.
6%
1450.00–1499.99
$0 Vol.
8%
1500.00–1549.99
$0 Vol.
16%
1550.00–1599.99
$0 Vol.
6%
1600.00+
$1,264 Vol.
56%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 56.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate surpassing 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the BCRA's crawling peg regime with inflation-linked bands—currently featuring an upper limit of 1649 ARS/USD as of March 27, against a minorista rate of 1404. Recent fiscal slippage, with March's primary budget balance plunging to 1.4 billion pesos from 3.1 billion prior, has heightened devaluation risks amid fragile reserves and monthly band expansions tied to 2-3% inflation prints. Stabilization efforts under President Milei, including moderated inflation and growth forecasts of 3-4%, support this positioning, though policy execution and upcoming Q2 fiscal releases remain key swing factors.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$1,264End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 56.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate surpassing 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the BCRA's crawling peg regime with inflation-linked bands—currently featuring an upper limit of 1649 ARS/USD as of March 27, against a minorista rate of 1404. Recent fiscal slippage, with March's primary budget balance plunging to 1.4 billion pesos from 3.1 billion prior, has heightened devaluation risks amid fragile reserves and monthly band expansions tied to 2-3% inflation prints. Stabilization efforts under President Milei, including moderated inflation and growth forecasts of 3-4%, support this positioning, though policy execution and upcoming Q2 fiscal releases remain key swing factors.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$1,264End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 56.5% implied probability to Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate surpassing 1600 by year-end 2026, driven by the BCRA's crawling peg regime with inflation-linked bands—currently featuring an upper limit of 1649 ARS/USD as of March 27, against a minorista rate of 1404. Recent fiscal slippage, with March's primary budget balance plunging to 1.4 billion pesos from 3.1 billion prior, has heightened devaluation risks amid fragile reserves and monthly band expansions tied to 2-3% inflation prints. Stabilization efforts under President Milei, including moderated inflation and growth forecasts of 3-4%, support this positioning, though policy execution and upcoming Q2 fiscal releases remain key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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