Trader sentiment on Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate at end-2026 heavily favors 1600+ (54% implied probability), driven by expectations of sustained peso depreciation amid lingering inflation pressures and a crawling peg policy capping monthly devaluation at 2%. President Milei's fiscal reforms have delivered primary surpluses and tamed monthly inflation to 2.4% in October, bolstering reserves to $32B gross, yet net reserves remain negative at -$7B, fueling devaluation risks if dollar demands surge. Upcoming 2025 midterms and IMF talks add uncertainty, positioning 1450-1499 (14%) and 1350-1399 (13%) as moderate alternatives if reforms accelerate toward freer floating or dollarization. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on incomplete stabilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1600.00+ 66%
1350.00–1399.99 10.8%
1400.00–1449.99 10.7%
1300.00–1349.99 7.4%
<1250.00
1%
1250.00–1299.99
5%
1300.00–1349.99
7%
1350.00–1399.99
16%
1400.00–1449.99
6%
1450.00–1499.99
34%
1500.00–1549.99
5%
1550.00–1599.99
5%
1600.00+
46%
1600.00+ 66%
1350.00–1399.99 10.8%
1400.00–1449.99 10.7%
1300.00–1349.99 7.4%
<1250.00
1%
1250.00–1299.99
5%
1300.00–1349.99
7%
1350.00–1399.99
16%
1400.00–1449.99
6%
1450.00–1499.99
34%
1500.00–1549.99
5%
1550.00–1599.99
5%
1600.00+
46%
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate at end-2026 heavily favors 1600+ (54% implied probability), driven by expectations of sustained peso depreciation amid lingering inflation pressures and a crawling peg policy capping monthly devaluation at 2%. President Milei's fiscal reforms have delivered primary surpluses and tamed monthly inflation to 2.4% in October, bolstering reserves to $32B gross, yet net reserves remain negative at -$7B, fueling devaluation risks if dollar demands surge. Upcoming 2025 midterms and IMF talks add uncertainty, positioning 1450-1499 (14%) and 1350-1399 (13%) as moderate alternatives if reforms accelerate toward freer floating or dollarization. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on incomplete stabilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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