NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system drives the 94.5% market-implied probability for no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, as its continually updated risk table lists zero credible threats—only two tiny asteroids under 20 meters diameter with negligible impact odds below 0.004% and negative Palermo scale values indicating risks far below historical baselines. These objects lack the ~25-50 meter size needed for 1-megaton airburst energy, akin to rare events like Chelyabinsk (440 kilotons). Recent safe close approaches this week, including 40-80 meter 2023 DZ2 on April 4 and 120-270 meter 2002 TB70 on April 7 at distances over 1 million kilometers, underscore robust detection via ATLAS and Pan-STARRS surveys covering over 95% of larger NEOs. Trader consensus reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of planetary defense progress, though a surprise late detection of an undetected mid-sized impactor could shift odds before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$102,125 Vol.
$102,125 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$102,125 Vol.
$102,125 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system drives the 94.5% market-implied probability for no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, as its continually updated risk table lists zero credible threats—only two tiny asteroids under 20 meters diameter with negligible impact odds below 0.004% and negative Palermo scale values indicating risks far below historical baselines. These objects lack the ~25-50 meter size needed for 1-megaton airburst energy, akin to rare events like Chelyabinsk (440 kilotons). Recent safe close approaches this week, including 40-80 meter 2023 DZ2 on April 4 and 120-270 meter 2002 TB70 on April 7 at distances over 1 million kilometers, underscore robust detection via ATLAS and Pan-STARRS surveys covering over 95% of larger NEOs. Trader consensus reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of planetary defense progress, though a surprise late detection of an undetected mid-sized impactor could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$102,125End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system drives the 94.5% market-implied probability for no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, as its continually updated risk table lists zero credible threats—only two tiny asteroids under 20 meters diameter with negligible impact odds below 0.004% and negative Palermo scale values indicating risks far below historical baselines. These objects lack the ~25-50 meter size needed for 1-megaton airburst energy, akin to rare events like Chelyabinsk (440 kilotons). Recent safe close approaches this week, including 40-80 meter 2023 DZ2 on April 4 and 120-270 meter 2002 TB70 on April 7 at distances over 1 million kilometers, underscore robust detection via ATLAS and Pan-STARRS surveys covering over 95% of larger NEOs. Trader consensus reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of planetary defense progress, though a surprise late detection of an undetected mid-sized impactor could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$102,125End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system drives the 94.5% market-implied probability for no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, as its continually updated risk table lists zero credible threats—only two tiny asteroids under 20 meters diameter with negligible impact odds below 0.004% and negative Palermo scale values indicating risks far below historical baselines. These objects lack the ~25-50 meter size needed for 1-megaton airburst energy, akin to rare events like Chelyabinsk (440 kilotons). Recent safe close approaches this week, including 40-80 meter 2023 DZ2 on April 4 and 120-270 meter 2002 TB70 on April 7 at distances over 1 million kilometers, underscore robust detection via ATLAS and Pan-STARRS surveys covering over 95% of larger NEOs. Trader consensus reflects this skin-in-the-game assessment of planetary defense progress, though a surprise late detection of an undetected mid-sized impactor could shift odds before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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