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¿Elon reducirá el presupuesto en al menos un 5% en 2025?

Market icon

¿Elon reducirá el presupuesto en al menos un 5% en 2025?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$202,621 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$202,621 Vol.

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
Volumen
$202,621
Fecha de finalización
Feb 28, 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 5, 2025, 6:18 PM ET
In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
Volumen
$202,621
Fecha de finalización
Feb 28, 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 5, 2025, 6:18 PM ET
In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿Elon reducirá el presupuesto en al menos un 5% en 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "¿Reducirá Elon el presupuesto en al menos un 5% en 2025?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿Elon reducirá el presupuesto en al menos un 5% en 2025?" has generated $202.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿Elon reducirá el presupuesto en al menos un 5% en 2025?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "¿Elon reducirá el presupuesto en al menos un 5% en 2025?" is "¿Reducirá Elon el presupuesto en al menos un 5% en 2025?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "¿Elon reducirá el presupuesto en al menos un 5% en 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.