Diplomatic relations between the United States and European allies remain stable, with no verified incidents of espionage, election interference, or policy disputes escalating to the level of ambassador expulsions in the past 30 days, driving trader consensus to a 99.6% implied probability for "No" by March 31. NATO cohesion amid Ukraine support and routine bilateral engagements reinforce this positioning, as expulsions are rare among allies—last seen in non-EU contexts like Russia. High confidence stems from the absence of catalysts like formal protests or intelligence revelations, though late-breaking scandals, sudden retaliatory measures over trade tariffs, or geopolitical shocks could theoretically shift odds before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Algún país europeo expulsará a un embajador de Estados Unidos antes del 31 de marzo?
¿Algún país europeo expulsará a un embajador de Estados Unidos antes del 31 de marzo?
Sí
$41,175 Vol.
$41,175 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Sí
$41,175 Vol.
$41,175 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic relations between the United States and European allies remain stable, with no verified incidents of espionage, election interference, or policy disputes escalating to the level of ambassador expulsions in the past 30 days, driving trader consensus to a 99.6% implied probability for "No" by March 31. NATO cohesion amid Ukraine support and routine bilateral engagements reinforce this positioning, as expulsions are rare among allies—last seen in non-EU contexts like Russia. High confidence stems from the absence of catalysts like formal protests or intelligence revelations, though late-breaking scandals, sudden retaliatory measures over trade tariffs, or geopolitical shocks could theoretically shift odds before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 9, 2026, 11:22 PM ET
Volumen
$41,175Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 11:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic relations between the United States and European allies remain stable, with no verified incidents of espionage, election interference, or policy disputes escalating to the level of ambassador expulsions in the past 30 days, driving trader consensus to a 99.6% implied probability for "No" by March 31. NATO cohesion amid Ukraine support and routine bilateral engagements reinforce this positioning, as expulsions are rare among allies—last seen in non-EU contexts like Russia. High confidence stems from the absence of catalysts like formal protests or intelligence revelations, though late-breaking scandals, sudden retaliatory measures over trade tariffs, or geopolitical shocks could theoretically shift odds before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a European country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$41,175Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 11:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic relations between the United States and European allies remain stable, with no verified incidents of espionage, election interference, or policy disputes escalating to the level of ambassador expulsions in the past 30 days, driving trader consensus to a 99.6% implied probability for "No" by March 31. NATO cohesion amid Ukraine support and routine bilateral engagements reinforce this positioning, as expulsions are rare among allies—last seen in non-EU contexts like Russia. High confidence stems from the absence of catalysts like formal protests or intelligence revelations, though late-breaking scandals, sudden retaliatory measures over trade tariffs, or geopolitical shocks could theoretically shift odds before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes