US and Israel have led airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets since late February 2026, marking nearly a month of escalation that prompted Iran's latest missile strike on a US-used Saudi airbase, injuring at least 15 American troops within the past day. This retaliation underscores Tehran's strategy of targeting regional US allies amid stalled ceasefire talks mediated by Oman and others, with President Trump signaling potential further strikes if negotiations fail by early next week. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE host US forces but have not independently launched attacks, while UK bases support operations; trader consensus weighs imminent diplomatic breakthroughs or proxy escalations like Houthi involvement before the March 31 deadline, amid domestic US polls showing majority opposition to prolonged action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$10,402,881 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Arabia Saudita
7%
EAU
6%
Qatar
3%
Bahréin
2%
Cualquier país de la UE
1%
Reino Unido
1%
Kuwait
1%
Turquía
1%
Jordania
1%
Francia
1%
Omán
1%
Alemania
<1%
Canadá
<1%
$10,402,881 Vol.
Arabia Saudita
$2,130,728 Vol.
7%
EAU
$2,581,373 Vol.
6%
Qatar
$937,679 Vol.
3%
Bahréin
$387,936 Vol.
2%
Cualquier país de la UE
$459,773 Vol.
1%
Reino Unido
$938,064 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$209,767 Vol.
1%
Turquía
$474,133 Vol.
1%
Jordania
$186,817 Vol.
1%
Francia
$723,944 Vol.
1%
Omán
$129,544 Vol.
1%
Alemania
$908,400 Vol.
<1%
Canadá
$334,732 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel have led airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets since late February 2026, marking nearly a month of escalation that prompted Iran's latest missile strike on a US-used Saudi airbase, injuring at least 15 American troops within the past day. This retaliation underscores Tehran's strategy of targeting regional US allies amid stalled ceasefire talks mediated by Oman and others, with President Trump signaling potential further strikes if negotiations fail by early next week. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE host US forces but have not independently launched attacks, while UK bases support operations; trader consensus weighs imminent diplomatic breakthroughs or proxy escalations like Houthi involvement before the March 31 deadline, amid domestic US polls showing majority opposition to prolonged action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volumen
$10,402,881Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel have led airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets since late February 2026, marking nearly a month of escalation that prompted Iran's latest missile strike on a US-used Saudi airbase, injuring at least 15 American troops within the past day. This retaliation underscores Tehran's strategy of targeting regional US allies amid stalled ceasefire talks mediated by Oman and others, with President Trump signaling potential further strikes if negotiations fail by early next week. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE host US forces but have not independently launched attacks, while UK bases support operations; trader consensus weighs imminent diplomatic breakthroughs or proxy escalations like Houthi involvement before the March 31 deadline, amid domestic US polls showing majority opposition to prolonged action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,402,881Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel have led airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets since late February 2026, marking nearly a month of escalation that prompted Iran's latest missile strike on a US-used Saudi airbase, injuring at least 15 American troops within the past day. This retaliation underscores Tehran's strategy of targeting regional US allies amid stalled ceasefire talks mediated by Oman and others, with President Trump signaling potential further strikes if negotiations fail by early next week. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE host US forces but have not independently launched attacks, while UK bases support operations; trader consensus weighs imminent diplomatic breakthroughs or proxy escalations like Houthi involvement before the March 31 deadline, amid domestic US polls showing majority opposition to prolonged action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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