US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 75%
February 7 1.9%
February 28 1.8%
February 14 1.6%
$3,906,324 Vol.
$3,906,324 Vol.
January 2026
$188,427 Vol.
<1%
January 2026
$188,427 Vol.
<1%
February 1
$840,312 Vol.
<1%
February 1
$840,312 Vol.
<1%
February 2
$249,637 Vol.
<1%
February 2
$249,637 Vol.
<1%
February 3
$162,060 Vol.
1%
February 3
$162,060 Vol.
1%
February 4
$120,174 Vol.
1%
February 4
$120,174 Vol.
1%
February 5
$109,336 Vol.
1%
February 5
$109,336 Vol.
1%
February 6
$115,101 Vol.
1%
February 6
$115,101 Vol.
1%
February 7
$86,575 Vol.
2%
February 7
$86,575 Vol.
2%
February 8
$99,379 Vol.
1%
February 8
$99,379 Vol.
1%
February 9
$79,953 Vol.
1%
February 9
$79,953 Vol.
1%
February 10
$77,922 Vol.
1%
February 10
$77,922 Vol.
1%
February 11
$76,947 Vol.
1%
February 11
$76,947 Vol.
1%
February 12
$72,501 Vol.
1%
February 12
$72,501 Vol.
1%
February 13
$76,207 Vol.
2%
February 13
$76,207 Vol.
2%
February 14
$86,768 Vol.
2%
February 14
$86,768 Vol.
2%
February 15
$95,303 Vol.
1%
February 15
$95,303 Vol.
1%
February 16
$82,540 Vol.
1%
February 16
$82,540 Vol.
1%
February 17
$95,693 Vol.
1%
February 17
$95,693 Vol.
1%
February 18
$90,768 Vol.
1%
February 18
$90,768 Vol.
1%
February 19
$97,804 Vol.
1%
February 19
$97,804 Vol.
1%
February 20
$77,002 Vol.
1%
February 20
$77,002 Vol.
1%
February 21
$80,866 Vol.
1%
February 21
$80,866 Vol.
1%
February 22
$92,141 Vol.
1%
February 22
$92,141 Vol.
1%
February 23
$96,538 Vol.
1%
February 23
$96,538 Vol.
1%
February 24
$96,207 Vol.
1%
February 24
$96,207 Vol.
1%
February 25
$103,318 Vol.
1%
February 25
$103,318 Vol.
1%
February 26
$110,822 Vol.
1%
February 26
$110,822 Vol.
1%
February 27
$98,724 Vol.
1%
February 27
$98,724 Vol.
1%
February 28
$108,827 Vol.
2%
February 28
$108,827 Vol.
2%
No strike by February 28
$138,595 Vol.
75%
No strike by February 28
$138,595 Vol.
75%
Normas
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Creado en: Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 75%
February 7 1.9%
February 28 1.8%
February 14 1.6%
$3,906,324 Vol.
$3,906,324 Vol.
January 2026
<1%
February 1
<1%
February 2
<1%
February 3
1%
February 4
1%
February 5
1%
February 6
1%
February 7
2%
February 8
1%
February 9
1%
February 10
1%
February 11
1%
February 12
1%
February 13
2%
February 14
2%
February 15
1%
February 16
1%
February 17
1%
February 18
1%
February 19
1%
February 20
1%
February 21
1%
February 22
1%
February 23
1%
February 24
1%
February 25
1%
February 26
1%
February 27
1%
February 28
2%
No strike by February 28
75%
Acerca de
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.