Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 98.9% implied probability against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching its all-time high of $410.45 from December 2025 by March 31, reflecting current spot levels hovering around $101 per barrel amid abundant supply offsets despite a sharp geopolitical risk premium. Over the past month, U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments—the largest supply shock on record per the International Energy Agency—driving a 60% rally from $70 lows via heightened Middle East tensions and OPEC+ output boosts of 206,000 barrels per day. With resolution imminent, this pricing embeds the physical impossibility of a 300% intraday surge, though tail risks like a full Gulf production shutdown from escalated conflict could theoretically jolt prices.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Petróleo crudo en su punto más alto para el 31 de marzo?
¿Petróleo crudo en su punto más alto para el 31 de marzo?
Sí
$748,415 Vol.
$748,415 Vol.
Sí
$748,415 Vol.
$748,415 Vol.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado abierto: Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 98.9% implied probability against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching its all-time high of $410.45 from December 2025 by March 31, reflecting current spot levels hovering around $101 per barrel amid abundant supply offsets despite a sharp geopolitical risk premium. Over the past month, U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments—the largest supply shock on record per the International Energy Agency—driving a 60% rally from $70 lows via heightened Middle East tensions and OPEC+ output boosts of 206,000 barrels per day. With resolution imminent, this pricing embeds the physical impossibility of a 300% intraday surge, though tail risks like a full Gulf production shutdown from escalated conflict could theoretically jolt prices.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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