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Finanzas·Materias Primas

¿Petróleo crudo en su punto más alto para el 31 de marzo?

Market icon
Finanzas·Materias Primas

¿Petróleo crudo en su punto más alto para el 31 de marzo?

Sí

1% chance
Polymarket

$748,415 Vol.

Sí

1% chance
Polymarket

$748,415 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 98.9% implied probability against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching its all-time high of $410.45 from December 2025 by March 31, reflecting current spot levels hovering around $101 per barrel amid abundant supply offsets despite a sharp geopolitical risk premium. Over the past month, U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments—the largest supply shock on record per the International Energy Agency—driving a 60% rally from $70 lows via heightened Middle East tensions and OPEC+ output boosts of 206,000 barrels per day. With resolution imminent, this pricing embeds the physical impossibility of a 300% intraday surge, though tail risks like a full Gulf production shutdown from escalated conflict could theoretically jolt prices.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 98.9% implied probability against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching its all-time high of $410.45 from December 2025 by March 31, reflecting current spot levels hovering around $101 per barrel amid abundant supply offsets despite a sharp geopolitical risk premium. Over the past month, U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments—the largest supply shock on record per the International Energy Agency—driving a 60% rally from $70 lows via heightened Middle East tensions and OPEC+ output boosts of 206,000 barrels per day. With resolution imminent, this pricing embeds the physical impossibility of a 300% intraday surge, though tail risks like a full Gulf production shutdown from escalated conflict could theoretically jolt prices.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 98.9% implied probability against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching its all-time high of $410.45 from December 2025 by March 31, reflecting current spot levels hovering around $101 per barrel amid abundant supply offsets despite a sharp geopolitical risk premium. Over the past month, U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments—the largest supply shock on record per the International Energy Agency—driving a 60% rally from $70 lows via heightened Middle East tensions and OPEC+ output boosts of 206,000 barrels per day. With resolution imminent, this pricing embeds the physical impossibility of a 300% intraday surge, though tail risks like a full Gulf production shutdown from escalated conflict could theoretically jolt prices.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 98.9% implied probability against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching its all-time high of $410.45 from December 2025 by March 31, reflecting current spot levels hovering around $101 per barrel amid abundant supply offsets despite a sharp geopolitical risk premium. Over the past month, U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments—the largest supply shock on record per the International Energy Agency—driving a 60% rally from $70 lows via heightened Middle East tensions and OPEC+ output boosts of 206,000 barrels per day. With resolution imminent, this pricing embeds the physical impossibility of a 300% intraday surge, though tail risks like a full Gulf production shutdown from escalated conflict could theoretically jolt prices.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Petróleo crudo en su punto más alto para el 31 de marzo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿El precio del petróleo crudo alcanzará un máximo histórico para el 31 de marzo?" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 1¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 1% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Petróleo crudo en su punto más alto para el 31 de marzo?" ha generado $748.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 9, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Petróleo crudo en su punto más alto para el 31 de marzo?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Petróleo crudo en su punto más alto para el 31 de marzo?" es "¿El precio del petróleo crudo alcanzará un máximo histórico para el 31 de marzo?" con solo 1%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Petróleo crudo en su punto más alto para el 31 de marzo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.