Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability for March COMEX gold futures (GC) settling below $4,750/oz, reflecting a recent pullback from all-time highs above $2,750 amid stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls (254,000 jobs added in September) that strengthened the dollar—DXY index near 103—and lifted 10-year Treasury yields to 4.18%. Lower Federal Reserve rate-cut odds (now 85% chance of 25 basis points in November per CME FedWatch) have eroded gold's appeal as an inflation hedge and non-yielding safe haven. Geopolitical tensions and U.S. election uncertainty provide tail-risk support for higher bins (collectively 19.5%), but absent major catalysts, the market anticipates range-bound trading below $2,800 ahead of the November 6-7 FOMC meeting and October CPI release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿En qué se liquidará el oro (GC) en marzo?
¿En qué se liquidará el oro (GC) en marzo?
<$4,750 81%
$4,750-$4,875 12%
$4,875-$5,000 3.3%
$5,000-$5,125 2.7%
$29,885 Vol.
$29,885 Vol.
<$4,750
81%
$4,750-$4,875
12%
$4,875-$5,000
3%
$5,000-$5,125
3%
$5,125-$5,250
1%
$5,250-$5,375
1%
$5,375-$5,500
2%
$5,500-$5,625
1%
$5,625-$5,750
1%
$5,750+
<1%
<$4,750 81%
$4,750-$4,875 12%
$4,875-$5,000 3.3%
$5,000-$5,125 2.7%
$29,885 Vol.
$29,885 Vol.
<$4,750
81%
$4,750-$4,875
12%
$4,875-$5,000
3%
$5,000-$5,125
3%
$5,125-$5,250
1%
$5,250-$5,375
1%
$5,375-$5,500
2%
$5,500-$5,625
1%
$5,625-$5,750
1%
$5,750+
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Mercado abierto: Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80.5% implied probability for March COMEX gold futures (GC) settling below $4,750/oz, reflecting a recent pullback from all-time highs above $2,750 amid stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls (254,000 jobs added in September) that strengthened the dollar—DXY index near 103—and lifted 10-year Treasury yields to 4.18%. Lower Federal Reserve rate-cut odds (now 85% chance of 25 basis points in November per CME FedWatch) have eroded gold's appeal as an inflation hedge and non-yielding safe haven. Geopolitical tensions and U.S. election uncertainty provide tail-risk support for higher bins (collectively 19.5%), but absent major catalysts, the market anticipates range-bound trading below $2,800 ahead of the November 6-7 FOMC meeting and October CPI release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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