Traders on Polymarket assign a 60% implied probability to WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, reflecting bullish sentiment fueled by escalating Middle East tensions—particularly Israel-Iran hostilities and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea—that have added a 5-10% geopolitical risk premium to benchmarks. EIA data last week showed a larger-than-expected 4.2 million barrel inventory draw, tightening supply amid OPEC+'s extended production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through Q3. Spot WTI holds near $82/bbl, with the June futures curve in mild backwardation signaling near-term strength ahead of peak summer driving demand. China economic slowdown caps upside, keeping $77-$84 (12.5%) viable, while upcoming EIA reports and Fed rate decisions could sway volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿En qué se asentará el petróleo crudo (CL) en junio?
¿En qué se asentará el petróleo crudo (CL) en junio?
>$84 60%
$77-$84 13%
$70-$77 11.6%
$63-$70 9%
$83,267 Vol.
$83,267 Vol.
< $42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
3%
$56-$63
7%
$63-$70
9%
$70-$77
12%
$77-$84
13%
>$84
60%
>$84 60%
$77-$84 13%
$70-$77 11.6%
$63-$70 9%
$83,267 Vol.
$83,267 Vol.
< $42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
3%
$56-$63
7%
$63-$70
9%
$70-$77
12%
$77-$84
13%
>$84
60%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Mercado abierto: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders on Polymarket assign a 60% implied probability to WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $84 in June, reflecting bullish sentiment fueled by escalating Middle East tensions—particularly Israel-Iran hostilities and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea—that have added a 5-10% geopolitical risk premium to benchmarks. EIA data last week showed a larger-than-expected 4.2 million barrel inventory draw, tightening supply amid OPEC+'s extended production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through Q3. Spot WTI holds near $82/bbl, with the June futures curve in mild backwardation signaling near-term strength ahead of peak summer driving demand. China economic slowdown caps upside, keeping $77-$84 (12.5%) viable, while upcoming EIA reports and Fed rate decisions could sway volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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