Market icon
Geopolítica·EE. UU. X Irán

¿Irán se responsabilizará del ataque a la embajada de Oslo?

Market icon
Geopolítica·EE. UU. X Irán

¿Irán se responsabilizará del ataque a la embajada de Oslo?

Sí

<1% chance
Polymarket

$303,668 Vol.

Sí

<1% chance
Polymarket

$303,668 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran explicitly claims responsibility for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo that occurred on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claims can come from statements by the Iranian government, military, or intelligence services. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Iranian government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.3% for Iran claiming responsibility for the March 7 explosion outside the US Embassy in Oslo, driven by the absence of any official statement from Tehran despite three weeks of elapsed time amid heightened US-Iran tensions from airstrikes and retaliatory actions. Norwegian police swiftly arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin—plus their mother—charging them with terrorist bombing, pointing to potential independent actors inspired by the conflict rather than state-directed proxies. Iran's pattern in past operations favors prompt claims via government, IRGC, or allies if involved, making a late admission improbable without new evidence linking the low-impact incident. Scenarios like an unforeseen diplomatic escalation or leaked intelligence could shift odds, though investigations continue without Iranian ties confirmed.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.3% for Iran claiming responsibility for the March 7 explosion outside the US Embassy in Oslo, driven by the absence of any official statement from Tehran despite three weeks of elapsed time amid heightened US-Iran tensions from airstrikes and retaliatory actions. Norwegian police swiftly arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin—plus their mother—charging them with terrorist bombing, pointing to potential independent actors inspired by the conflict rather than state-directed proxies. Iran's pattern in past operations favors prompt claims via government, IRGC, or allies if involved, making a late admission improbable without new evidence linking the low-impact incident. Scenarios like an unforeseen diplomatic escalation or leaked intelligence could shift odds, though investigations continue without Iranian ties confirmed.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran explicitly claims responsibility for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo that occurred on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claims can come from statements by the Iranian government, military, or intelligence services. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Iranian government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.3% for Iran claiming responsibility for the March 7 explosion outside the US Embassy in Oslo, driven by the absence of any official statement from Tehran despite three weeks of elapsed time amid heightened US-Iran tensions from airstrikes and retaliatory actions. Norwegian police swiftly arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin—plus their mother—charging them with terrorist bombing, pointing to potential independent actors inspired by the conflict rather than state-directed proxies. Iran's pattern in past operations favors prompt claims via government, IRGC, or allies if involved, making a late admission improbable without new evidence linking the low-impact incident. Scenarios like an unforeseen diplomatic escalation or leaked intelligence could shift odds, though investigations continue without Iranian ties confirmed.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 99.3% for Iran claiming responsibility for the March 7 explosion outside the US Embassy in Oslo, driven by the absence of any official statement from Tehran despite three weeks of elapsed time amid heightened US-Iran tensions from airstrikes and retaliatory actions. Norwegian police swiftly arrested three Norwegian brothers of Iraqi origin—plus their mother—charging them with terrorist bombing, pointing to potential independent actors inspired by the conflict rather than state-directed proxies. Iran's pattern in past operations favors prompt claims via government, IRGC, or allies if involved, making a late admission improbable without new evidence linking the low-impact incident. Scenarios like an unforeseen diplomatic escalation or leaked intelligence could shift odds, though investigations continue without Iranian ties confirmed.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Irán se responsabilizará del ataque a la embajada de Oslo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Reclamará Irán la responsabilidad por el ataque a la embajada en Oslo?" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 1¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 1% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Irán se responsabilizará del ataque a la embajada de Oslo?" ha generado $303.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 8, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Irán se responsabilizará del ataque a la embajada de Oslo?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Irán se responsabilizará del ataque a la embajada de Oslo?" es "¿Reclamará Irán la responsabilidad por el ataque a la embajada en Oslo?" con solo 1%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Irán se responsabilizará del ataque a la embajada de Oslo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.