Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth in a tight contest between 3.0–3.5% (27%) and 2.5–3.0% (26.3%), reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game bets amid nowcasts clustering lower near 2%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 2.0% as of March 23 after incorporating construction spending, down from 2.7% mid-March, while New York Fed holds at 2.1% through March 27, pressured by February's nonfarm payrolls miss (-92,000 jobs) and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Countering this, ISM manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.4 and services surged to 56.1, signaling resilient activity post-Q4 2025's 1.4% growth. March jobs report (April 3) and ISM PMIs loom as swing factors ahead of BEA's April 30 advance estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026
¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026
3,0–3,5% 27%
2.5–3.0% 26.3%
2,0–2,5% 14.7%
≥3,5% 13%
$229,759 Vol.
$229,759 Vol.
30 abr 2026
<1,0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1,5–2,0%
8%
2,0–2,5%
15%
2.5–3.0%
26%
3,0–3,5%
27%
≥3,5%
13%
3,0–3,5% 27%
2.5–3.0% 26.3%
2,0–2,5% 14.7%
≥3,5% 13%
$229,759 Vol.
$229,759 Vol.
30 abr 2026
<1,0%
$21,636 Vol.
8%
1.0–1.5%
$5,024 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0%
$14,617 Vol.
8%
2,0–2,5%
$31,552 Vol.
15%
2.5–3.0%
$13,754 Vol.
26%
3,0–3,5%
$73,946 Vol.
27%
≥3,5%
$69,229 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth in a tight contest between 3.0–3.5% (27%) and 2.5–3.0% (26.3%), reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game bets amid nowcasts clustering lower near 2%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 2.0% as of March 23 after incorporating construction spending, down from 2.7% mid-March, while New York Fed holds at 2.1% through March 27, pressured by February's nonfarm payrolls miss (-92,000 jobs) and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Countering this, ISM manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.4 and services surged to 56.1, signaling resilient activity post-Q4 2025's 1.4% growth. March jobs report (April 3) and ISM PMIs loom as swing factors ahead of BEA's April 30 advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volumen
$229,759Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth in a tight contest between 3.0–3.5% (27%) and 2.5–3.0% (26.3%), reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game bets amid nowcasts clustering lower near 2%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 2.0% as of March 23 after incorporating construction spending, down from 2.7% mid-March, while New York Fed holds at 2.1% through March 27, pressured by February's nonfarm payrolls miss (-92,000 jobs) and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Countering this, ISM manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.4 and services surged to 56.1, signaling resilient activity post-Q4 2025's 1.4% growth. March jobs report (April 3) and ISM PMIs loom as swing factors ahead of BEA's April 30 advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$229,759Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth in a tight contest between 3.0–3.5% (27%) and 2.5–3.0% (26.3%), reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game bets amid nowcasts clustering lower near 2%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow fell to 2.0% as of March 23 after incorporating construction spending, down from 2.7% mid-March, while New York Fed holds at 2.1% through March 27, pressured by February's nonfarm payrolls miss (-92,000 jobs) and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Countering this, ISM manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.4 and services surged to 56.1, signaling resilient activity post-Q4 2025's 1.4% growth. March jobs report (April 3) and ISM PMIs loom as swing factors ahead of BEA's April 30 advance estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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