As the US-Iran war surpasses one month since initial US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, trader consensus reflects surging risks of ground escalation after recent deployments of thousands of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and over 50,000 total US troops to the Middle East. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed 200 dynamic strikes overnight degraded Iran's conventional capabilities, while President Trump weighs operations on oil-rich Kharg Island amid Iran's rejection of a 15-point diplomatic proposal. Tehran threatens to target arriving forces, signaling de-escalation barriers. No US ground entry into Iran has occurred, but imminent assault preparations and stalled talks heighten market volatility ahead of potential resolution triggers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Las fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán por...?
¿Las fuerzas estadounidenses entran en Irán por...?
$71,233,532 Vol.
1 mar 2026
31 de marzo
1%
30 de abril
56%
31 de diciembre
63%
$71,233,532 Vol.
31 de marzo
$48,343,781 Vol.
1%
30 de abril
$13,226,305 Vol.
56%
31 de diciembre
$7,601,706 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.As the US-Iran war surpasses one month since initial US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, trader consensus reflects surging risks of ground escalation after recent deployments of thousands of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and over 50,000 total US troops to the Middle East. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed 200 dynamic strikes overnight degraded Iran's conventional capabilities, while President Trump weighs operations on oil-rich Kharg Island amid Iran's rejection of a 15-point diplomatic proposal. Tehran threatens to target arriving forces, signaling de-escalation barriers. No US ground entry into Iran has occurred, but imminent assault preparations and stalled talks heighten market volatility ahead of potential resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volumen
$71,233,532Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.As the US-Iran war surpasses one month since initial US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, trader consensus reflects surging risks of ground escalation after recent deployments of thousands of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and over 50,000 total US troops to the Middle East. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed 200 dynamic strikes overnight degraded Iran's conventional capabilities, while President Trump weighs operations on oil-rich Kharg Island amid Iran's rejection of a 15-point diplomatic proposal. Tehran threatens to target arriving forces, signaling de-escalation barriers. No US ground entry into Iran has occurred, but imminent assault preparations and stalled talks heighten market volatility ahead of potential resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$71,233,532Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
As the US-Iran war surpasses one month since initial US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, trader consensus reflects surging risks of ground escalation after recent deployments of thousands of Marines, 82nd Airborne paratroopers, and over 50,000 total US troops to the Middle East. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed 200 dynamic strikes overnight degraded Iran's conventional capabilities, while President Trump weighs operations on oil-rich Kharg Island amid Iran's rejection of a 15-point diplomatic proposal. Tehran threatens to target arriving forces, signaling de-escalation barriers. No US ground entry into Iran has occurred, but imminent assault preparations and stalled talks heighten market volatility ahead of potential resolution triggers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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